{"id":"W3092541402","doi":"10.1175/waf-d-20-0082.1","title":"Skill of Global Raw and Postprocessed Ensemble Predictions of Rainfall in the Tropics","year":2020,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Weather and Forecasting","topic":"Climate variability and models","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":43,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"Klaus Tschira Stiftung; Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft","keywords":"Climatology; Tropics; Environmental science; Precipitation; Probabilistic logic; Meteorology; Forecast skill; Convection; Tropical cyclone; Arid; Geography; Mathematics; Statistics; Geology","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0001412406,0.00004285352,0.00008163472,0.000003500131,0.00003149518,0.000005224439,0.00005130679,0.00002378362,0.00002470963],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00006869096,0.00003034741,0.00001437709,0.0001091382,0.00009466107,0.00004960232,0.00005164803,0.00003726845,3.180407e-7],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.000007519645,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000003178215,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0002215722,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0001362954,"domain_scores_codex":[0.999603,0.00002001597,0.0001318286,0.00009834214,0.00007266677,0.00007414418],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9998247,0.00005861745,0.00003972807,0.00004918705,0.000003734456,0.00002405262],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00006527574,0.00009741293,0.9547592,0.000126637,0.000009116539,0.000001539886,0.02231369,0.004777351,0.007165141,0.001380054,0.00003100412,0.009273585],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.001501107,0.0005019934,0.6758831,0.00007852725,0.00004813139,0.00002650549,0.004083686,0.3066079,0.0004819971,0.01029053,0.0002956092,0.0002009423],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9912398,0.00003667373,0.001365623,0.0003144518,0.00000645105,0.00008872098,0.00001205669,0.00000422443,0.006931939],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9994189,0.0000138105,0.0004316246,0.0001187701,0.000008099322,0.000002135485,8.126182e-7,0.000001965591,0.000003870812],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.3018306,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1237531,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03029879643937051,"score_gpt":0.2298144166000816,"score_spread":0.1995156201607111,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}