{"id":"W3093298383","doi":"10.1016/s0140-6736(20)30977-6","title":"Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019","year":2020,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"The Lancet","topic":"Global Maternal and Child Health","field":"Medicine","cited_by":2012,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership; European Social Fund; Norwegian Institute of Public Health; Sistema Nacional de Investigadores; NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre; European Regional Development Fund; Instituto de Salud Carlos III; Russian Academy of Sciences; National Health and Medical Research Council; Medical Research Council; Manchester Biomedical Research Centre; Sanofi Pasteur; Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health; University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign; Fogarty International Center; National Institutes of Health; Secretaria Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología; Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia; Unitatea Executiva pentru Finantarea Invatamantului Superior, a Cercetarii, Dezvoltarii si Inovarii; Kuwait University; Vetenskapsrådet; Department of Health and Aged Care, Australian Government; University of Western Australia; University of Calgary; University of Melbourne; Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung; British Heart Foundation; Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology; Department of Biotechnology, Ministry of Science and Technology, India; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; South African Medical Research Council; Genentech; AstraZeneca; European Commission; National Research Foundation; National Institute for Health and Care Research; Ministarstvo Prosvete, Nauke i Tehnološkog Razvoja; Public Health England; National Authority for Scientific Research and Innovation; Duke University; Australian Government; Xiamen University; Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades; Boston Scientific Corporation; Ministero della Salute; Arizona State University; Direktorat Jenderal Pendidikan Tinggi; University of Michigan; National Institute of Mental Health; Danmarks Grundforskningsfond; Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Ensino Superior; Wellcome Trust; Department of Health and Social Care; Bristol-Myers Squibb; Teva Pharmaceutical Industries; National Institute on Aging; Alexander von Humboldt-Stiftung; Comunidad de Madrid; Sanofi; Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico; BHF Centre of Research Excellence, Oxford; GlaxoSmithKline; Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior; Johns Hopkins University; Amarin Corporation; Novavax; National Rosacea Society; Department of Science and Innovation, South Africa; Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia; Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; Pfizer; Seqirus; Chandigarh University; Edwards Lifesciences; Amgen; Queensland Health; Autoritatea Natională pentru Cercetare Stiintifică; Damon Runyon Cancer Research Foundation; Programa Operacional Temático Factores de Competitividade; Seoul National University; Lembaga Pengelola Dana Pendidikan; U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs","keywords":"Life expectancy; Demography; Fertility; Disease; Burden of disease; Population ageing; Population; Gerontology; Medicine; Sociology","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.004691839,0.0004652951,0.0006422863,0.00610846,0.0002709045,0.0008091269,0.0005864626,0.0002625573,0.003297012],"category_scores_gemma":[0.007650832,0.0002850392,0.001302058,0.01025489,0.0002974677,0.001006734,0.001417141,0.0006962956,0.001408975],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001136922,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001984427,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.04247542,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.03863541,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9987717,0.0004278636,0.0002262433,0.0001677954,0.00030341,0.0001030264],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9971626,0.0005255672,0.0009147968,0.0002416722,0.0009933563,0.0001619138],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001528276,0.00004269248,0.8479313,0.001603846,0.001308158,0.0001317607,0.0007450655,0.005226481,0.0002744545,0.002144274,0.07580318,0.06463593],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00003467054,0.00007947042,0.9408492,0.0007710273,0.0005218151,0.0002383257,0.0008499664,0.004131355,0.0002440516,0.00110938,0.0510998,0.00007087085],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"dataset","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.2321561,0.0107393,0.01003629,0.001472219,0.0002287719,0.0004329004,0.7363263,0.000505856,0.008102184],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.5288643,0.008166464,0.01649759,0.000367588,0.0002121067,0.001517744,0.4424162,0.0001088043,0.001849165],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.04247542,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.08445638,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.04618547303799563,"score_gpt":0.3374647362804922,"score_spread":0.2912792632424966,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). 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