{"id":"W3093741845","doi":"10.1098/rsif.2020.0521","title":"Cyclic epidemics and extreme outbreaks induced by hydro-climatic variability and memory","year":2020,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of The Royal Society Interface","topic":"Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models","field":"Medicine","cited_by":8,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"McGill University","funders":"","keywords":"Outbreak; Transmission (telecommunications); Environmental science; Linearization; Epidemic model; Transmission rate; Nonlinear system; Ecology; Meteorology; Biology; Computer science; Geography; Physics; Virology; Environmental health; Medicine","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001490265,0.0001356951,0.0005775003,0.000005223545,0.00009294244,0.00001140205,0.0001209001,0.0002191534,0.0001253937],"category_scores_gemma":[0.003344839,0.00007444221,0.0002333283,0.00004523333,0.0003680165,0.00005688748,0.0001558012,0.0007760135,0.000004085166],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00002951973,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00002518973,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.000004448897,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":1.390063e-7,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9987182,0.0002598365,0.0005665233,0.0001506769,0.0001147799,0.0001900007],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9979652,0.001316176,0.0002660545,0.0001284234,0.00005608129,0.0002680543],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"not_applicable","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.01009223,0.006058661,0.2407413,0.01328643,0.01441678,0.0001038294,0.0830714,0.008227713,0.1184085,0.1124279,0.3614447,0.03172051],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.003516322,0.001508333,0.00886065,0.0005587685,0.001235278,0.0003477505,0.001125875,0.8892452,0.003590168,0.08860527,0.001006762,0.0003996214],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9065967,0.0002835835,0.05122889,0.04103466,0.00009583515,0.0001472348,0.000003711658,0.00001022254,0.0005991916],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9916835,0.00006227024,0.001411407,0.006594997,0.00007531061,0.000001252756,2.520896e-7,0.000008280133,0.0001627129],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.8810175,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.4004327,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03657105764684348,"score_gpt":0.2821130403369108,"score_spread":0.2455419826900673,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}