{"id":"W3094508623","doi":"10.3390/biology9110353","title":"When the Best Pandemic Models are the Simplest","year":2020,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Biology","topic":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","field":"Mathematics","cited_by":14,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of New Brunswick","funders":"","keywords":"Biology; Pandemic; Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); Evolutionary biology; Computational biology; Infectious disease (medical specialty); Disease; Internal medicine","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0005565193,0.0001341468,0.0003120345,0.000006318777,0.0002086179,0.000008076888,0.0004828551,0.0001153063,0.00006750925],"category_scores_gemma":[0.005648283,0.00005369809,0.0000947427,0.00007238967,0.0002847715,0.00001684096,0.0003824077,0.0002313997,0.0001132448],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00002589334,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00001795002,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0001107618,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0001638931,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9987898,0.0003625354,0.000256518,0.0002449493,0.00005282323,0.0002933797],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9934681,0.006020952,0.0001378598,0.0002883052,0.00003492433,0.00004982937],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0000813614,0.0001044877,0.273204,0.0000880666,0.0002989487,0.000008355567,0.004012234,0.0002317309,0.0007497882,0.4649005,0.2497031,0.006617519],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001480071,0.0001102128,0.001906573,0.000006336439,0.00004245914,0.000003072369,0.0009983442,0.002362082,0.000008735901,0.851406,0.1428887,0.0001194526],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"commentary","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.4206704,0.003680286,0.03636954,0.531875,0.0003306303,0.001279638,0.0001190713,0.0005111821,0.005164321],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.977194,0.0002602893,0.0004667535,0.0216075,0.0003204248,0.00005741412,0.000002551008,0.000009912794,0.00008115955],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.5565236,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.6761931,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.5911794375957635,"score_gpt":0.4471444947779892,"score_spread":0.1440349428177743,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}