{"id":"W3106110954","doi":"10.1007/s00148-020-00820-3","title":"The COVID-19 pandemic and the 2020 US presidential election","year":2020,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"Journal of Population Economics","topic":"COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":1,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"University of Ottawa; McGill University","funders":"McGill University","keywords":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); Counterfactual thinking; Presidential election; Presidency; Pandemic; Demographic economics; Political science; Voting; Presidential system; 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2); Economics; Medicine; Psychology; Virology; Politics; Law; Social psychology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.003268649,0.0002611012,0.0007802497,0.0001878428,0.0003655969,0.0005133222,0.0005580814,0.0003067924,0.00005657062],"category_scores_gemma":[0.002829075,0.0002052601,0.0003703059,0.0001040451,0.0001515667,0.0003145889,0.0003313483,0.001059736,0.00002588473],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001054173,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0003194749,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001580929,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0006114942,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9971879,0.0001389008,0.001989385,0.0003675758,0.00006061415,0.0002556914],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9942586,0.0007724736,0.00427308,0.0003745996,0.0000604343,0.0002607953],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001564828,0.00003907056,0.8171334,0.0002198701,0.0009262727,0.000008561997,0.002155358,0.09482958,0.000007694482,0.0664387,0.01323889,0.003437811],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.003688425,0.00008513879,0.1644612,0.00002594794,0.0001376935,0.0002713298,0.00008063087,0.04014033,0.000003179141,0.615577,0.1750865,0.0004427226],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9156854,0.007792698,0.01470499,0.05544984,0.004812861,0.0009347847,0.0001549928,0.00004464612,0.0004198102],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9839655,0.01029311,0.000182718,0.003621446,0.001704698,0.00001184812,0.00002273663,0.00003916625,0.000158791],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.6526722,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.8370265,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.07177536472799376,"score_gpt":0.299051836429944,"score_spread":0.2272764717019502,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}