{"id":"W3107631275","doi":"10.2196/23624","title":"An Epidemiological Model Considering Isolation to Predict COVID-19 Trends in Tokyo, Japan: Numerical Analysis","year":2020,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"JMIR Public Health and Surveillance","topic":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","field":"Mathematics","cited_by":11,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); Epidemiology; 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2); Pandemic; Isolation (microbiology); Epidemic model; Environmental health; Computer science; Virology; Geography; Medicine; Outbreak; Population; Infectious disease (medical specialty); Biology; Disease; Bioinformatics","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":true,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0004890444,0.0006883463,0.0006023762,0.000706622,0.0005279786,0.000773612,0.001002766,0.00157476,0.001675167],"category_scores_gemma":[0.001855011,0.000346001,0.0009492709,0.000628053,0.0005565218,0.0008558599,0.0007155716,0.0008542463,0.0001559487],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00136316,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001240276,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.05096864,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01631321,"domain_scores_codex":[0.999828,0.00005158859,0.00001169443,0.00004478403,0.0000194365,0.00004456598],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9993548,0.0003121853,0.0001287131,0.00002099449,0.0001210357,0.00006237993],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00001888074,0.00002286793,0.004840868,0.00001846381,0.0000132521,0.0001149046,0.00003602598,0.992105,0.0002754843,0.001393703,0.0002105211,0.0009500782],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00000444704,0.00001025909,0.0004078124,0.000002504267,0.000005996755,0.00001065712,0.00002025861,0.999124,0.00002559825,0.0002946044,0.00009052176,0.000003282978],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8655359,0.0008553088,0.1209027,0.001419797,0.0001424645,0.0001013505,0.0009651915,0.0001676105,0.00990951],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9902739,0.0003061095,0.006474035,0.00006258838,0.00002385879,0.00007613313,0.000324541,0.00001339543,0.00244541],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.05096864,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1013439,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.3454458539567103,"score_gpt":0.4703848221115999,"score_spread":0.1249389681548896,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}