{"id":"W3109247317","doi":"10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-6366","title":"Optimal Error Analysis of MJO Prediction Associated with Uncertainties in Sea Surface Temperature over Indian Ocean","year":2020,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"","topic":"Climate variability and models","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Northern British Columbia","funders":"","keywords":"Climatology; Madden–Julian oscillation; Predictability; Perturbation (astronomy); Zonal and meridional; Advection; Sea surface temperature; Forecast skill; Geology; Mathematics; Physics; Meteorology; Statistics; Thermodynamics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001622792,0.000495676,0.0003739434,0.0005419021,0.0003183887,0.0008019181,0.0004480872,0.0005241408,0.0004996805],"category_scores_gemma":[0.005190215,0.0002890074,0.0005469512,0.0002732898,0.0004254756,0.0006090907,0.0005779419,0.0005970018,0.00005704559],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0005738774,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001038391,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.02798392,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01168621,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9996825,0.0001104093,0.00002254881,0.00006905518,0.0000643127,0.00005107933],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9982339,0.001081045,0.000220588,0.0000976513,0.0002984305,0.00006825376],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001335827,0.00002815949,0.0206525,0.00003068024,0.00006312154,0.00009876013,0.00003417792,0.9703634,0.00168917,0.001258625,0.0002519226,0.005395886],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000003171701,0.000009093478,0.00297673,0.000003687289,0.00000516818,0.000004029362,0.00001138582,0.9963475,0.0003968281,0.0002020558,0.00003494421,0.000005470631],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.967811,0.000269157,0.02986261,0.0003403486,0.00005311102,0.0000129579,0.0001470055,0.0001174064,0.001386478],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9971438,0.00004919418,0.002476442,0.00001356795,0.000009863619,0.000004162808,0.000118751,0.00001668974,0.0001675964],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.02798392,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.05564207,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01364394745749227,"score_gpt":0.2209142373515239,"score_spread":0.2072702898940316,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}