{"id":"W3109586078","doi":"10.7326/m20-5350","title":"Probability of Success and Timelines for the Development of Vaccines for Emerging and Reemerged Viral Infectious Diseases","year":2020,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Annals of Internal Medicine","topic":"SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research","field":"Medicine","cited_by":22,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"McGill University","funders":"National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases","keywords":"Medicine; Licensure; Timeline; Clinical endpoint; Clinical trial; Vaccine efficacy; Vaccination; Virology; Internal medicine; Medical education; Statistics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.07096661,0.0007161864,0.001599486,0.004511818,0.0005264708,0.002777266,0.001151266,0.001656868,0.01027264],"category_scores_gemma":[0.1974416,0.0005465872,0.005771938,0.003663994,0.001051048,0.003843086,0.001756796,0.002125407,0.001031702],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001283707,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001892423,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001261655,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001137105,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9567401,0.02184871,0.008077357,0.006902281,0.005159423,0.001272092],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.6048615,0.2791148,0.0982819,0.007151731,0.007302063,0.003288062],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.01008745,0.0001888551,0.8918127,0.003084539,0.00513318,0.000148809,0.000422433,0.01094215,0.000297158,0.002918254,0.0051334,0.06983101],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.001698814,0.006038927,0.9276633,0.002254813,0.007351537,0.001715818,0.0006516194,0.02464803,0.001576562,0.01000491,0.01612727,0.0002683719],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8572216,0.05173201,0.0349295,0.004525875,0.000322716,0.003053578,0.03619198,0.0003372204,0.01168553],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9813063,0.003499475,0.006306208,0.0002777228,0.0001220895,0.001959082,0.005780137,0.00003911012,0.0007099368],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.07096661,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.3753118,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1069065135600352,"score_gpt":0.4133779183628897,"score_spread":0.3064714048028545,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}