{"id":"W3116604909","doi":"10.1029/2020jd032669","title":"Statistical Reconstruction of Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Variability in the North Atlantic Basin","year":2020,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres","topic":"Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research","field":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","cited_by":1,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Environment and Climate Change Canada; Dalhousie University","funders":"","keywords":"Tropical cyclone; Climatology; Predictability; Atlantic hurricane; Atlantic multidecadal oscillation; North Atlantic oscillation; Environmental science; Tropical Atlantic; Storm; Redundancy (engineering); Meteorology; Geography; Sea surface temperature; Geology; Computer science; Statistics; Mathematics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001023705,0.0001330482,0.0004491997,0.00002337889,0.0001160566,0.00007805582,0.0006900335,0.00008245843,0.001659887],"category_scores_gemma":[0.003651304,0.00007555154,0.0001658148,0.0009056046,0.0007608569,0.0002241837,0.0000441092,0.001552231,0.00008040591],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00001704888,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0002854639,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.003925019,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.002502255,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9945235,0.002099508,0.0006626384,0.0002510931,0.001901143,0.000562137],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9945356,0.004373631,0.0001227457,0.0001702219,0.0003414892,0.0004562818],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001171888,0.0001784967,0.936805,0.00006044233,0.00002477954,0.0001464438,0.0001265645,0.0001123593,0.00006191568,0.001189808,0.0006169811,0.05950536],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000490287,0.001620393,0.9838011,0.00002620818,0.000009766783,0.00003732735,0.00022003,0.006358994,0.00001718586,0.006609434,0.0007327359,0.00007648521],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9935403,0.00008855968,0.001185214,0.004512332,0.00005553897,0.0001686112,0.00003435413,0.000004575684,0.0004105238],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9970261,0.00007981688,0.002193193,0.00009906033,0.0005841861,9.914108e-7,0.000007010084,0.000003715074,0.000005968217],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.05942887,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9992527,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03380394834353,"score_gpt":0.2875080460988691,"score_spread":0.2537040977553391,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}