{"id":"W3119321472","doi":"10.1126/science.abf2946","title":"Establishment and lineage dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the UK","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Science","topic":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","field":"Mathematics","cited_by":516,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Toronto; University Health Network; BlueDot (Canada); St. Michael's Hospital","funders":"H2020 European Research Council; Medical Research Council; European Commission; Fondation Botnar; Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo; Cystic Fibrosis Trust; UK Research and Innovation; Academy of Medical Sciences; Wellcome Trust; Canadian Institutes of Health Research; National Institute for Health and Care Research; Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council; Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation","keywords":"Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2); Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak; Sars virus; Lineage (genetic); Virology; Betacoronavirus; Coronavirus; Biology; Pandemic; Dynamics (music); Evolutionary biology; Genetics; Medicine; Outbreak; Physics; Infectious disease (medical specialty)","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.000565615,0.0001469976,0.0002221186,0.001120598,0.0003192605,0.0009427184,0.0002543486,0.000398169,0.0009251159],"category_scores_gemma":[0.003416053,0.0002118207,0.0001290663,0.001143429,0.0004586212,0.0006216834,0.0007836448,0.0003100933,0.0002538092],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001200753,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00050754,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.06222742,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.06942704,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9993973,0.0001636877,0.00005790038,0.0001451305,0.00008621505,0.0001497568],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9985955,0.0002643876,0.000609751,0.00009751466,0.0002634325,0.0001693915],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001976067,0.00001339571,0.9834251,0.00002165867,0.00002467792,0.0003310183,0.002081592,0.0004919561,0.004014291,0.0002739309,0.0003485063,0.008776259],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000003917032,0.00003461409,0.997417,0.00002306545,0.000005371111,0.0001560708,0.0007787598,0.0008017917,0.000196141,0.00006137615,0.0005136015,0.000008174937],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9992127,0.0001631746,0.00008899122,0.0000610698,0.000001457039,0.000004085854,0.0001635827,0.000001864889,0.0003030204],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9992511,0.000230231,0.0001099793,0.00002953788,0.000002249552,0.000003897928,0.0002271749,0.00000190013,0.0001440077],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.06222742,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1237304,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.2195553876902739,"score_gpt":0.4381402101824261,"score_spread":0.2185848224921522,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}