{"id":"W3119321472","doi":"10.1126/science.abf2946","title":"Establishment and lineage dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the UK","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Science","topic":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","field":"Mathematics","cited_by":516,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Toronto; University Health Network; BlueDot (Canada); St. Michael's Hospital","funders":"H2020 European Research Council; Medical Research Council; European Commission; Fondation Botnar; Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo; Cystic Fibrosis Trust; UK Research and Innovation; Academy of Medical Sciences; Wellcome Trust; Canadian Institutes of Health Research; National Institute for Health and Care Research; Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council; Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation","keywords":"Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2); Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak; Sars virus; Lineage (genetic); Virology; Betacoronavirus; Coronavirus; Biology; Pandemic; Dynamics (music); Evolutionary biology; Genetics; Medicine; Outbreak; Physics; Infectious disease (medical specialty)","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaresearch"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.003675328,0.00006829455,0.00017454,0.00002235772,0.0001487713,0.00002304051,0.0005115551,0.00002553747,0.000003776838],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01884549,0.00003201911,0.00003636289,0.0007841273,0.0007898929,0.00005292196,0.0005085514,0.0001396383,0.000001073584],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00007845353,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00008715213,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00009658501,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001165673,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9988724,0.0001683655,0.0002525151,0.0002275436,0.0002762772,0.0002028944],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9966115,0.002821323,0.0001021858,0.000387118,0.00006460505,0.00001324186],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00001030439,0.0002691119,0.532997,0.0002158876,0.00001548996,0.0000281327,0.005954454,0.00008594436,0.03168347,0.4182684,0.003713624,0.006758278],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0002971205,0.00005275551,0.4161233,0.0001550546,0.00002544387,0.00002253748,0.002044491,0.01469721,0.01843939,0.546191,0.001742168,0.0002095217],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9885467,0.0002512704,0.0007587009,0.009154391,0.00008913626,0.0001494862,0.000005090084,0.000007647858,0.001037623],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.995148,0.00006566785,0.002610609,0.00211601,0.00001118006,0.000007658366,1.512246e-7,0.000001909214,0.00003883631],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.1279227,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9894192,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.2195553876902739,"score_gpt":0.4381402101824261,"score_spread":0.2185848224921522,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}