{"id":"W3119895874","doi":"10.3847/1538-4357/abdbb4","title":"The Polar Precursor Method for Solar Cycle Prediction: Comparison of Predictors and Their Temporal Range","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"The Astrophysical Journal","topic":"Solar and Space Plasma Dynamics","field":"Physics and Astronomy","cited_by":40,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Université de Montréal; Collège de Bois-de-Boulogne","funders":"","keywords":"Polar; Amplitude; Solar dynamo; Solar cycle; Dynamo; Solar observatory; Flux (metallurgy); Solar minimum; Solar cycle 24; Sunspot","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.007815242,0.0008406105,0.0007237025,0.001990305,0.0004050786,0.001156205,0.0006352672,0.0005274495,0.00205872],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01587978,0.0002804144,0.0005467357,0.001454863,0.0003341913,0.0009841936,0.0008130969,0.001154039,0.0006341037],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0002705181,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00124882,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01139108,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.006726535,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9986767,0.0007743416,0.0000733314,0.0002283167,0.0001671118,0.00008006276],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9822564,0.01445525,0.000718465,0.0008511905,0.001355672,0.0003629462],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0021329,0.0002970126,0.4402843,0.0001680604,0.0006255656,0.0001860353,0.0001917638,0.3428928,0.0016427,0.001907654,0.004210545,0.2054606],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00002698848,0.000147445,0.01708896,0.00003486748,0.00004949741,0.00004043075,0.00008575531,0.9807249,0.0007227402,0.0005256578,0.0005339515,0.00001882095],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8327209,0.002054015,0.1546728,0.0005064146,0.0001462197,0.0001397301,0.002953355,0.002353436,0.004453065],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9651691,0.0003475631,0.03042326,0.00005346119,0.00007688938,0.00007399444,0.003006654,0.0001556144,0.0006934539],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01139108,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.04133147,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01012201987531239,"score_gpt":0.2661006954578195,"score_spread":0.2559786755825071,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}