{"id":"W3121231402","doi":"10.3386/w14795","title":"Consumption and Real Exchange Rates in Professional Forecasts","year":2009,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"National Bureau of Economic Research","topic":"Financial Markets and Investment Strategies","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":11,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Queen's University; University of British Columbia","funders":"McGill University; University of Washington","keywords":"Consumption (sociology); Econometrics; Exchange rate; Economics; Monetary economics; Sociology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001657353,0.0001720691,0.0002798105,0.0007035197,0.0001498348,0.001683053,0.0001495687,0.0006598293,0.006161515],"category_scores_gemma":[0.02279199,0.00014878,0.0001588936,0.0009636387,0.0004301532,0.001520434,0.0005369904,0.000652735,0.001042541],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0004786852,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0001754485,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.005653348,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.003583694,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9995946,0.0001269002,0.00002697296,0.00009285736,0.00009835896,0.00006044626],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9854667,0.007347234,0.004579088,0.001012069,0.000972258,0.0006226018],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0008692597,0.0001345375,0.9506481,0.00004142654,0.00009653108,0.0002544561,0.001968493,0.009820607,0.0003524333,0.006430571,0.005306654,0.02407702],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00003146713,0.00007518929,0.9661645,0.00003249955,0.0000433648,0.0001766051,0.001330448,0.01636008,0.0004138212,0.01112926,0.004199735,0.00004307582],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9941925,0.000170044,0.000451847,0.0004072264,0.00001864383,0.000002236099,0.0007535159,0.00001583876,0.003988243],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9972386,0.00009952356,0.0001096633,0.00002212047,0.00002444034,0.000001728493,0.0009480701,0.000005425059,0.001550462],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.006161515,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.0206123,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.3809372758851183,"score_gpt":0.4683925458181729,"score_spread":0.08745526993305458,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}