{"id":"W3121290908","doi":"10.1017/asb.2015.19","title":"THE DESIGN OF AN OPTIMAL RETROSPECTIVE RATING PLAN","year":2015,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Astin Bulletin","topic":"Insurance and Financial Risk Management","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":8,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Waterloo","funders":"","keywords":"Actuarial science; Indemnity; Auto insurance risk selection; Economics; Insurance policy; Liability insurance; Business","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001263946,0.00009603734,0.0002085089,0.00004817797,0.0001352284,0.00004787513,0.0002444567,0.00004402362,0.0000794595],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0004269436,0.00008702926,0.00004014555,0.0001176892,0.00006729423,0.00005259356,0.00005482181,0.0001064348,0.000430233],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00005223697,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00001576287,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0001448407,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.000006152086,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9990863,0.00002977443,0.0003873197,0.000221302,0.00005178915,0.0002235095],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.999299,0.0000660424,0.000276735,0.0002511513,0.00005591284,0.00005113713],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000972015,0.0003773029,0.1220368,0.00003642164,0.0001575873,0.00004050945,0.005166995,0.02658482,0.00004569985,0.7055967,0.105894,0.03309106],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.002699828,0.001786866,0.1809125,0.00005298417,0.00001701976,0.00000886314,0.002457455,0.01775963,0.0007106012,0.03896921,0.7537559,0.0008691903],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.5850559,0.004162126,0.2299979,0.003626555,0.001998947,0.001445014,0.0001461084,0.0001582653,0.1734092],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9882874,0.00005857043,0.01031778,0.00009583879,0.0001544453,0.00002739706,0.000004396441,0.00001712336,0.001037076],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.6666275,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.5529919,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.04844713248012029,"score_gpt":0.2173249639266805,"score_spread":0.1688778314465602,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}