{"id":"W3121572840","doi":"10.3386/w20273","title":"Long-Term Unemployment and the Great Recession: The Role of Composition, Duration Dependence, and Non-Participation","year":2014,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"National Bureau of Economic Research","topic":"Employment and Welfare Studies","field":"Health Professions","cited_by":97,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"McGill University; University of Toronto","funders":"","keywords":"Unemployment; Current Population Survey; Duration (music); Demographics; Matching (statistics); Economics; Demographic economics; Term (time); Great recession; Panel data; Recession; Beveridge curve; Econometrics; Population; Unemployment rate; Labour economics; Demography; Statistics; Keynesian economics; Mathematics; Physics; Macroeconomics; Sociology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.004872108,0.0001441244,0.0003568539,0.0001803911,0.0008664586,0.00002866658,0.0002621578,0.0002060457,0.0001135088],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0002492087,0.00008664948,0.00005582495,0.00006730761,0.0006473218,0.0000895999,0.0007622043,0.0006872436,0.00001393697],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001892126,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0003035935,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0006996423,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0004932553,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9970958,0.001031798,0.000783811,0.0003090297,0.0005444836,0.0002351372],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.995611,0.002720456,0.0005189137,0.0002662664,0.0008329588,0.00005041012],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0008408231,0.00007499908,0.6110164,0.0006978352,0.0003225273,2.853096e-7,0.00450743,0.0003721385,0.0003050703,0.3744534,0.00374214,0.003666954],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00205369,0.0001056475,0.4967531,0.0007411039,0.00006775813,0.000001195222,0.0005462646,0.004488008,0.0005282415,0.4942313,0.0003193994,0.0001643835],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9607257,0.001176017,0.00004025347,0.01434148,0.0002655238,0.002109609,0.00003676717,0.00001035446,0.02129431],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9971771,0.00118833,0.00002845202,0.00006491354,0.0003213217,0.0005945752,0.0001359958,0.0000127191,0.000476579],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.1197778,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.6664186,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.20000186937436,"score_gpt":0.5312850469603723,"score_spread":0.3312831775860122,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}