{"id":"W3121585744","doi":"","title":"Modelling Extreme Risks in Commodities and Commodity Currencies","year":2016,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","topic":"Point processes and geometric inequalities","field":"Mathematics","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Commodity; Liberian dollar; Currency; Economics; Us dollar; Financial economics; Monetary economics; Finance","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.003914763,0.000393503,0.0009071351,0.001168245,0.0001663576,0.0002099551,0.0006736988,0.0004834341,0.00006096316],"category_scores_gemma":[0.001330357,0.0003621639,0.0001207882,0.0001813048,0.0004955239,0.0002102322,0.001705134,0.001852008,0.000004001429],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0006381628,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0003834975,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0006261734,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0008928794,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9966351,0.0003804385,0.0009705219,0.0007544881,0.0003475825,0.0009118398],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9948686,0.00366008,0.000275326,0.0008778464,0.0001730557,0.0001450373],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0006767513,0.001686022,0.05430996,0.01617762,0.0005051069,0.0001846887,0.02047642,0.0601893,0.00001898151,0.3991343,0.001016137,0.4456247],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0007900333,0.00005985241,0.0004126547,0.001332578,0.00001020681,0.000008392565,0.002733693,0.09358362,0.00004826066,0.8964164,0.003949633,0.0006547277],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9340723,0.001140902,0.0007085332,0.0003882433,0.0003510654,0.0007626696,0.0004689724,0.00006952953,0.06203784],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9755267,0.02101748,0.001923114,0.00002159725,0.0002104527,0.0002193227,0.00003101089,0.00006108201,0.0009892685],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.4972821,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9998831,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.3175190329509117,"score_gpt":0.3982629448162393,"score_spread":0.08074391186532759,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}