{"id":"W3121675718","doi":"","title":"The Welfare and Distributional Effects of Fiscal Volatility: A Quantitative Evaluation","year":2017,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"Carleton University's Institutional Repository (MacOdrum Library, Carleton University)","topic":"Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":1,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Carleton University","funders":"","keywords":"Economics; Volatility (finance); Welfare; Incomplete markets; Government spending; Monetary economics; Systematic risk; Fiscal policy; Macroeconomics; Econometrics; Microeconomics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow","sts"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0004079973,0.0004723025,0.0007732315,0.0005889144,0.002532074,0.0002570176,0.001241572,0.0005969191,0.00003701584],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00026065,0.0005602914,0.0004836206,0.0002458335,0.001761704,0.001411858,0.001560928,0.0007749833,0.00001294148],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0009536479,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0006086755,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0005063437,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00002258452,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9974764,0.0002310237,0.0005728069,0.001051053,0.0002256694,0.0004430662],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9971232,0.0003322675,0.001231871,0.000882851,0.0001482733,0.0002814893],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0004611692,0.00009606864,0.03052234,0.0003369976,0.0005503183,0.000143958,0.0002486075,0.000358359,0.00002379803,0.965519,0.001400012,0.0003394188],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.005685038,0.0004403736,0.3473794,0.0006892555,0.0007615044,0.00005070545,0.001314352,0.02137514,0.0008886161,0.05960399,0.5597945,0.002017083],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.6890447,0.003354032,0.001489201,0.003596164,0.003605687,0.001367029,0.003017105,0.0001421094,0.2943839],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9934638,0.0003054281,0.0001536866,0.00004153476,0.0002236077,0.00000232586,0.0004055566,0.00002708269,0.005377003],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.905915,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9996849,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02108159770410182,"score_gpt":0.2040632739552443,"score_spread":0.1829816762511424,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}