{"id":"W3121731605","doi":"10.1101/2021.01.21.21250251","title":"Air passenger travel and international surveillance data predict spatiotemporal variation in measles importations to the United States","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"medRxiv","topic":"Virology and Viral Diseases","field":"Medicine","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Toronto; BlueDot (Canada); St. Michael's Hospital","funders":"University of Notre Dame","keywords":"Measles; Regression analysis; Outbreak; Statistics; Measles vaccine; Geography; Inflow; Vaccination; Demography; Medicine; Meteorology; Mathematics; Virology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001922528,0.000417341,0.0003164095,0.001162182,0.0001461654,0.0008288572,0.0003149,0.0002530422,0.0008181842],"category_scores_gemma":[0.007639267,0.0002039821,0.0006967199,0.001430283,0.0001419771,0.0005710691,0.0005567669,0.0005481147,0.0002267729],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0004586783,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0003072175,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.05003168,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.03338462,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9994307,0.0002582874,0.00005502813,0.0001331379,0.00006969502,0.00005312554],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9956963,0.001968152,0.001083017,0.0003797889,0.0006863509,0.0001864037],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00006156178,0.00004591664,0.9836665,0.000011205,0.0001507829,0.00002812956,0.00004689801,0.01286647,0.0001698887,0.00005898338,0.0003811032,0.002512417],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000007328865,0.00006453693,0.8324434,0.00002240168,0.0000652042,0.00004710689,0.0002719504,0.1658715,0.0004553733,0.0001373915,0.0006022234,0.00001157393],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9976385,0.00007745223,0.0006642744,0.00006496617,0.0000076095,0.000004788001,0.001202275,0.00003486218,0.0003052875],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9972812,0.0000502314,0.000408769,0.00001133269,0.000005832579,0.000003605159,0.002128185,0.00000719256,0.0001035441],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.05003168,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.09948087,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.05442416353002925,"score_gpt":0.3250839257666674,"score_spread":0.2706597622366381,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}