{"id":"W3121824744","doi":"10.3233/jad-210664","title":"Automatic Prediction of Cognitive and Functional Decline Can Significantly Decrease the Number of Subjects Required for Clinical Trials in Early Alzheimer’s Disease","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"Journal of Alzheimer s Disease","topic":"Dementia and Cognitive Impairment Research","field":"Medicine","cited_by":1,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Centres Intégré Universitaires de Santé et de Services Sociaux; Douglas Mental Health University Institute; McGill University; Montreal Neurological Institute and Hospital","funders":"National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering; Canadian Institutes of Health Research; National Institutes of Health; Genentech; IXICO; H. Lundbeck A/S; Servier; Eisai; Northern California Institute for Research and Education; BioClinica; F. Hoffmann-La Roche; University of Southern California; Biogen; U.S. Department of Defense; Meso Scale Diagnostics; Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative; Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation; Pfizer; Eli Lilly and Company; Bristol-Myers Squibb; National Institute on Aging; Alzheimer's Association; Foundation for the National Institutes of Health","keywords":"Cognitive decline; Clinical trial; Cognition; Disease; Cognitive impairment; Alzheimer's disease; Cohort; Sample size determination; Medicine; Cognitive aging; Internal medicine; Psychology; Dementia; Gerontology; Psychiatry; Statistics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.04989359,0.0008233135,0.002288302,0.00181628,0.0004266736,0.001756248,0.001116296,0.001835109,0.002556796],"category_scores_gemma":[0.1141594,0.0005351423,0.001655608,0.001163042,0.0006030707,0.001710053,0.001188847,0.001917348,0.0006113586],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0005320446,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001425864,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0007339298,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001949527,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9768866,0.01846836,0.001597114,0.001316767,0.001408552,0.0003226012],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.797591,0.1758934,0.01410862,0.00743657,0.003120813,0.001849575],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.02007701,0.002083679,0.519344,0.001573873,0.004611565,0.0003440124,0.0002449883,0.04898676,0.004610576,0.001964279,0.01759424,0.378565],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.005889775,0.006745372,0.4172251,0.000472541,0.004461768,0.0004904449,0.0001184076,0.5256554,0.005857295,0.02147358,0.01138577,0.0002246275],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8363646,0.01307989,0.1267474,0.006397126,0.0007775155,0.00157588,0.005497772,0.002386322,0.007173531],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9515386,0.0007013471,0.04228148,0.001020891,0.0003842746,0.0009357468,0.002502047,0.00005482578,0.000580735],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.04989359,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.2638656,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1756018807600577,"score_gpt":0.4402087376433485,"score_spread":0.2646068568832908,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}