{"id":"W3122120347","doi":"10.3386/w8362","title":"Rational Speculation and Exchange Rates","year":2001,"lang":"en","type":"report","venue":"National Bureau of Economic Research","topic":"Global Financial Crisis and Policies","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":21,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"University of Toronto","funders":"","keywords":"Speculation; Exchange rate; Business; Economics; Monetary economics; Computer science; Finance","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow","insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.004213973,0.0002094383,0.0006303039,0.001019995,0.0001637609,0.000117367,0.0002672014,0.000388442,0.001882107],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0009587329,0.0002525354,0.0001538684,0.0002326461,0.0002310197,0.0002251137,0.0001493076,0.0003898447,0.0005555226],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001068137,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0007126542,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.004692787,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0003582129,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9976637,0.00004465521,0.001019612,0.0005430593,0.0003635429,0.0003654735],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9979481,0.0003121218,0.0005637557,0.000225533,0.0008541864,0.00009636113],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00001484633,0.00003467002,0.00879651,0.0001002064,0.00006292533,0.000001192773,0.00006640174,0.00006012683,0.000004096322,0.8525413,0.1378147,0.0005029935],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0002204288,0.00005161343,0.01698064,0.00003429109,0.000003210504,0.00001171781,0.00001716113,0.0002451289,0.00001654147,0.5310801,0.4511501,0.0001890769],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"other","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.01001074,0.0102792,0.00001774578,0.001206464,0.0006684989,0.0004363474,0.0008969656,0.00001191981,0.9764721],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9337121,0.02269405,0.0002705639,0.00008740759,0.003262335,0.000123045,0.001430105,0.00006891908,0.03835153],"genre_candidate":"other","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.9381206,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9999927,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.4350269661222579,"score_gpt":0.4924506199156379,"score_spread":0.05742365379337999,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}