{"id":"W3122333553","doi":"10.1111/ecoj.2016.126.issue-598","title":"Bond Spreads and Economic Activity in Eight European Economies","year":2013,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":2,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Bond; Index (typography); Bond market; Economics; Quarter (Canadian coin); Corporate bond; Real economy; Construct (python library); Monetary economics; Financial economics; Econometrics; Finance; Geography","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.00124937,0.0003505267,0.0003817822,0.002994971,0.0001363749,0.0009250045,0.0001879302,0.0003038119,0.0008411278],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00453622,0.0001291137,0.0002363847,0.002855068,0.0002424634,0.0008581002,0.0009179272,0.0003709682,0.0001621141],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0003077014,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0001198571,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.003798111,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.003377209,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9996911,0.00007192714,0.00005493978,0.00008460326,0.00006780666,0.00002956958],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9971231,0.00078413,0.001431493,0.000188297,0.000296417,0.0001764954],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0002975994,0.00008870348,0.9682718,0.00006998904,0.0003961002,0.0002231499,0.0002892484,0.009570859,0.001202059,0.001602423,0.001137278,0.01685075],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00001535,0.00004090613,0.9925742,0.00002899957,0.00004489165,0.0001471358,0.000213437,0.003566985,0.0007067279,0.0007413423,0.001905928,0.00001401973],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9969386,0.0005370721,0.0003981487,0.00003432857,0.00000323114,0.000003875582,0.00138481,0.000009519799,0.0006905044],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.994858,0.0004289126,0.0003778446,0.00001254656,0.000007948193,0.000006319092,0.004094258,0.00000471674,0.0002094185],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.003798111,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.007551968,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.07398090380035001,"score_gpt":0.2831008858536293,"score_spread":0.2091199820532793,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}