{"id":"W3122340909","doi":"10.3386/w22144","title":"A Conceptual Framework for Understanding Critical Transitions","year":2016,"lang":"en","type":"report","venue":"National Bureau of Economic Research","topic":"World Systems and Global Transformations","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":3,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of British Columbia","funders":"Universität Hamburg; Princeton University; Economic History Association","keywords":"Politics; Openness to experience; Norm (philosophy); Critical mass (sociodynamics); Context (archaeology); Set (abstract data type); Political science; Political economy; Conceptual framework; Economic system; Public relations; Sociology; Positive economics; Economics; Social psychology; Computer science; Psychology; Social science; Geography","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.007324751,0.0001268254,0.0003556354,0.0004428232,0.0009604282,0.0001037403,0.0003594726,0.0005115685,0.00112536],"category_scores_gemma":[0.004729975,0.0001204303,0.0002723548,0.0001810009,0.001636278,0.0002609954,0.00001861375,0.000399472,0.00007642207],"about_ca_system_candidate":true,"about_ca_system_consensus":true,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.004283925,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.008606602,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001345545,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.002333964,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9965634,0.0003000257,0.0006192457,0.000302975,0.001699444,0.000514863],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9910312,0.006341042,0.0001222693,0.0001414949,0.002187828,0.000176209],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00001440195,0.00002617328,0.00001147818,0.00006549007,0.0000626236,3.356324e-7,0.001299238,0.000005769896,0.000002428458,0.9385645,0.05984734,0.0001002246],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001491843,0.00003298121,0.00000493983,0.0003023542,0.00001082234,0.000001264412,0.003677428,0.000007981335,0.000002638338,0.7711869,0.2245187,0.0001047747],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"other","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.0000107124,0.000302635,0.02212,0.01953784,0.001128821,0.0009378194,0.001545426,0.00002475349,0.954392],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9867609,0.0006175534,0.001305763,0.00002976954,0.003342234,0.0003078838,0.0001696175,0.00002812538,0.007438208],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.9867501,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9997877,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.6792260708091975,"score_gpt":0.6132321972884669,"score_spread":0.0659938735207306,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}