{"id":"W3122460150","doi":"10.3386/w12710","title":"Gold Rush Fever in Business Cycles","year":2006,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"National Bureau of Economic Research","topic":"Economic theories and models","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":9,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of British Columbia","funders":"","keywords":"Gold rush; Economics; Business cycle; Boom; Stock market; Economic rent; Volatility (finance); Monetary economics; Financial economics; Keynesian economics; Market economy; Geography","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001173671,0.0002151378,0.0005093364,0.0006000912,0.0005780476,0.001995131,0.0002649763,0.001278854,0.002411511],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01419297,0.0002903415,0.0004133535,0.0006835711,0.00184074,0.001521285,0.0007223258,0.0008804095,0.0001890302],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001456931,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0003376575,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.006127068,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.005563254,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9995806,0.0001981785,0.00001684384,0.00009791517,0.00004351582,0.00006301804],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9964364,0.001982384,0.0009709585,0.0002052415,0.0001428545,0.0002622417],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0005432417,0.0001629775,0.2040869,0.0001512493,0.0002046697,0.00139923,0.001703825,0.2440792,0.003121418,0.4932313,0.009159868,0.04215605],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00009768372,0.0001659781,0.1127381,0.00006771854,0.00005960055,0.0004051346,0.0006405281,0.469083,0.000394654,0.4096006,0.006657748,0.00008937535],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9715114,0.001376019,0.01409307,0.002735641,0.00005611726,0.00002483754,0.0002125832,0.0001073671,0.009882907],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9991152,0.0001796083,0.000273013,0.00005103744,0.00002487494,0.000004060018,0.00002341882,0.000006634118,0.0003222169],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.006127068,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.01218277,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.2395403929343103,"score_gpt":0.4142167076628899,"score_spread":0.1746763147285796,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}