{"id":"W3122460150","doi":"10.3386/w12710","title":"Gold Rush Fever in Business Cycles","year":2006,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"National Bureau of Economic Research","topic":"Economic theories and models","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":9,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of British Columbia","funders":"","keywords":"Gold rush; Economics; Business cycle; Boom; Stock market; Economic rent; Volatility (finance); Monetary economics; Financial economics; Keynesian economics; Market economy; Geography","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002408687,0.0001251793,0.000384718,0.0008374746,0.00005808049,0.00006204671,0.0003888514,0.0001392722,0.0007378624],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0001520808,0.000157092,0.00008643001,0.0002738554,0.0001903433,0.0003721463,0.0001113505,0.0002072353,0.0008003641],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0006259066,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0001530783,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.007082688,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0008614298,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9981689,0.00002873363,0.0008842933,0.0004407027,0.00007456174,0.0004028325],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.999043,0.0002883816,0.000216144,0.0002476293,0.000155278,0.00004950574],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00002428347,0.00008203852,0.02600801,0.00001734644,0.00001449161,0.000001084388,0.00003550167,0.00561832,0.00003628656,0.9631949,0.004836459,0.0001312615],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0006622046,0.00001377191,0.0469882,0.00001240817,5.491267e-7,0.000002059424,0.00003336975,0.002285804,0.000102937,0.9393478,0.0103957,0.0001552017],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"other","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.4187519,0.0007158394,0.00005633192,0.001488787,0.0002394714,0.0002319142,0.0001355234,0.00001296266,0.5783672],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9937425,0.0001447455,0.0003112297,0.00003634672,0.000300769,0.00004270579,0.0000692774,0.00002430764,0.005328094],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.5749906,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9999776,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.2395403929343103,"score_gpt":0.4142167076628899,"score_spread":0.1746763147285796,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}