{"id":"W3122576432","doi":"10.34989/sdp-2011-6","title":"The Role of Financial Speculation in Driving the Price of Crude Oil","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"Econstor (Econstor)","topic":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":11,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Bank of Canada","funders":"","keywords":"Speculation; Economics; Futures contract; Crude oil; Oil-storage trade; Monetary economics; Financial economics; Oil price; Financial market; Speculative demand; Consumption (sociology); Stock (firearms); Stock market; Interest rate; Supply and demand; Finance; Macroeconomics; Demand for money","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.00104692,0.0002740954,0.0003330399,0.0008502444,0.00043823,0.002785108,0.0003077962,0.0008552957,0.00320829],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01092202,0.000422884,0.0003654759,0.0007496122,0.0008136756,0.001641448,0.0006450664,0.001065382,0.000547136],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0007547378,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0007209106,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01126912,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.006166078,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9997855,0.00005767856,0.00001782812,0.00003658679,0.0000551251,0.00004718086],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9943342,0.003348439,0.001512067,0.0001468088,0.0003587442,0.0002997276],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001286017,0.0002572034,0.8422449,0.0002586838,0.0002522159,0.002534892,0.00117215,0.02852805,0.006145451,0.0666126,0.003849539,0.04685828],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001085539,0.0001862889,0.7247063,0.0001030043,0.0001969328,0.0004526523,0.001189964,0.1639531,0.003683137,0.1004754,0.00480977,0.0001348075],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9861855,0.0009831991,0.001645537,0.002026703,0.00005762713,0.00001050325,0.0002641863,0.00003640874,0.008790361],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9988036,0.0003881259,0.0001621861,0.00003136458,0.00003780791,0.000001278251,0.00007379612,0.000006221737,0.0004955375],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01126912,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.02240705,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01110507502670849,"score_gpt":0.2067426798394794,"score_spread":0.1956376048127709,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}