{"id":"W3122576432","doi":"10.34989/sdp-2011-6","title":"The Role of Financial Speculation in Driving the Price of Crude Oil","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"Econstor (Econstor)","topic":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":11,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Bank of Canada","funders":"","keywords":"Speculation; Economics; Futures contract; Crude oil; Oil-storage trade; Monetary economics; Financial economics; Oil price; Financial market; Speculative demand; Consumption (sociology); Stock (firearms); Stock market; Interest rate; Supply and demand; Finance; Macroeconomics; Demand for money","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002458374,0.0003286043,0.0009538345,0.0002472643,0.0001717067,0.0001053296,0.0007802271,0.0004025195,0.0005078688],"category_scores_gemma":[0.001042353,0.0003018521,0.0004530524,0.0002829173,0.0003764342,0.0001334022,0.0006139888,0.0008101353,0.00001165399],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0003252494,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0004454099,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0008460545,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.002914049,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9968324,0.0001285837,0.001865552,0.0006835737,0.0000988246,0.0003910864],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9960604,0.0006227485,0.001902532,0.001219564,0.0001271552,0.00006761663],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00001877346,0.0000957921,0.9575828,0.0001115357,0.00006259547,0.000001658108,0.0005065649,0.0001420778,0.00003417142,0.03902612,0.00006071527,0.002357242],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0003173206,0.00001867849,0.9403523,0.0001808595,0.00001613795,0.000003892302,0.0002044651,0.02579855,0.00009612879,0.02470993,0.00794687,0.0003549194],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9336894,0.007303941,0.0002321464,0.0002111672,0.001657273,0.0002728526,0.0002162616,0.00001424502,0.05640267],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9977888,0.001081767,0.0003750456,0.00003009213,0.0001658995,0.00005492798,0.00003281847,0.00003053299,0.0004401136],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.06409936,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9999434,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01110507502670849,"score_gpt":0.2067426798394794,"score_spread":0.1956376048127709,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}