{"id":"W3122613467","doi":"10.1257/aer.20121236","title":"Fiscal Volatility Shocks and Economic Activity","year":2015,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"American Economic Review","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":928,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Bank of Canada","funders":"Banco de España; Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología; National Science Foundation","keywords":"Economics; Volatility (finance); Fiscal policy; New Keynesian economics; Monetary economics; Business cycle; Macroeconomics; Econometrics; Monetary policy","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0007562605,0.0002106317,0.00028049,0.0006736285,0.0001637669,0.001660221,0.0001799896,0.0005145822,0.001552939],"category_scores_gemma":[0.006695895,0.0001456197,0.0002765663,0.001179373,0.0003018553,0.000853499,0.0004814264,0.0007867729,0.0002085513],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0008617177,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0003516779,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.003342792,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00291842,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9998401,0.00004886857,0.00001417974,0.00002670239,0.00003412699,0.00003597409],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9967811,0.001367491,0.001488869,0.00008309915,0.0001671393,0.0001121641],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0004303389,0.0002111369,0.5208878,0.0003154149,0.0006956067,0.0008920275,0.0006786911,0.1889297,0.002817841,0.2105638,0.006743263,0.06683455],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00008604107,0.0002804576,0.5410333,0.0002812614,0.0003060485,0.0004775494,0.001123619,0.1910184,0.002540167,0.2384655,0.02428803,0.00009971824],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9739119,0.005305747,0.006822519,0.003334054,0.00008376457,0.000008945765,0.0006187354,0.00003729817,0.00987705],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9965478,0.002372526,0.0001788509,0.00006989936,0.00006574822,0.000002961601,0.0001683909,0.000004605353,0.0005893691],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.003342792,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.006646693,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.09789279804689129,"score_gpt":0.2809692251240726,"score_spread":0.1830764270771814,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}