{"id":"W3122868537","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3649934","title":"Bayesian Nonparametric Forecast Pooling","year":2020,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Bayesian Methods and Mixture Models","field":"Computer Science","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"McMaster University","funders":"","keywords":"Pooling; Bayesian probability; Nonparametric statistics; Econometrics; Computer science; Artificial intelligence; Statistics; Mathematics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.004303101,0.001279739,0.001986519,0.001402885,0.001044708,0.00332882,0.001509135,0.001953678,0.008378924],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01418272,0.001146759,0.001560836,0.001919775,0.0007745554,0.00399784,0.002114782,0.001960696,0.002650564],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001081869,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001754579,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.006480408,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.006380565,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9981651,0.0006679397,0.0001114118,0.0004996405,0.0003993051,0.0001566712],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9969193,0.001570159,0.0002543307,0.0006622695,0.0004812556,0.0001126336],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0005434105,0.0001318941,0.002555128,0.0001701633,0.0005204938,0.0002023992,0.0001631699,0.387125,0.005193237,0.2109236,0.01891075,0.3735607],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0000143519,0.00002994795,0.0006072865,0.00001555973,0.0000516889,0.00004757026,0.0000128451,0.9156083,0.001511984,0.07853511,0.003530454,0.00003502199],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.01058494,0.0005543405,0.9803436,0.000619306,0.0002096659,0.00003409684,0.0004051488,0.0007872474,0.006461594],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.5715894,0.001072228,0.3915511,0.0004837675,0.0008927071,0.0002009241,0.002362089,0.0005315843,0.03131624],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.008378924,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.02803028,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01539201792725261,"score_gpt":0.2473419823257859,"score_spread":0.2319499643985333,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}