{"id":"W3123173332","doi":"10.1126/sciadv.abc0671","title":"Making climate projections conditional on historical observations","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Science Advances","topic":"Climate variability and models","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":308,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Victoria; Environment and Climate Change Canada","funders":"H2020 Excellent Science; Environment Canada; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique; European Commission","keywords":"Climatology; Computer science; Geology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.00313246,0.0005282988,0.0003585563,0.0008603029,0.0003355711,0.001116233,0.000541536,0.000438965,0.001672909],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01673501,0.0005241663,0.0005309535,0.0009848136,0.0003737404,0.002405647,0.0007998206,0.00119765,0.0004158003],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0004822726,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001260063,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01065097,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01243605,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9993314,0.0003230289,0.00004267665,0.0001639815,0.0001055918,0.00003351799],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9957225,0.002606935,0.0004773611,0.0006358269,0.0004747364,0.00008264642],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00007620439,0.00003890046,0.02402022,0.0001076187,0.0002729591,0.00005653823,0.0001343583,0.8836427,0.001222505,0.02387245,0.003014806,0.06354075],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00001732787,0.00002203774,0.0128906,0.0001014429,0.00006826092,0.00003157532,0.0000978384,0.8992983,0.002143556,0.07692347,0.008342497,0.0000631016],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.2711179,0.0007018773,0.7128023,0.001278026,0.0002270421,0.0000588038,0.003874448,0.0009501142,0.008989511],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.7656035,0.0008239953,0.2276246,0.0002161576,0.0001550309,0.0001446362,0.004196471,0.0002344317,0.001001144],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.01065097,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.02117795,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.09461819489437354,"score_gpt":0.3336845307058741,"score_spread":0.2390663358115006,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}