{"id":"W3123426597","doi":"10.1101/2020.05.13.20100628","title":"When strong mitigation against a pandemic backfires","year":2020,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"medRxiv","topic":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","field":"Mathematics","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Queen's University","funders":"","keywords":"Social planner; Case fatality rate; Point (geometry); Population; Planner; Pandemic; Business; Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); Environmental economics; Computer science; Economics; Environmental health; Microeconomics; Mathematics; Medicine","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002748222,0.000768276,0.0009970593,0.0005560579,0.0008716908,0.002452986,0.0009291202,0.002954202,0.01306041],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01194339,0.0005168025,0.0007383209,0.000265811,0.001481215,0.003565266,0.002518489,0.002181035,0.0008312735],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.000925429,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001348628,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.002659841,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001545171,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9990383,0.0003216522,0.00004004906,0.0001757377,0.0001093732,0.0003149055],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9967632,0.001717025,0.0007185038,0.0001609912,0.0002339992,0.0004062574],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0005032792,0.0001750509,0.00402031,0.0005357139,0.000194844,0.001409589,0.0004958614,0.2564029,0.00527189,0.6857028,0.02190849,0.02337936],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001780346,0.0004250151,0.002271407,0.0002211992,0.00006878838,0.0004484026,0.001427649,0.2766703,0.001353058,0.7007111,0.01615794,0.00006717824],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.4193682,0.002094542,0.3591586,0.04692912,0.001878463,0.0003925656,0.00187305,0.0005679293,0.1677376],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9807481,0.000558537,0.00630775,0.001053932,0.0003014602,0.0001206748,0.0001436839,0.0000463642,0.01071957],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01306041,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.04369146,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.3192763221629882,"score_gpt":0.4174795616471081,"score_spread":0.09820323948411985,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}