{"id":"W3123463615","doi":"10.1257/pandp.20211104","title":"Private and Social Returns to R&D: Drug Development and Demographics","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"AEA Papers and Proceedings","topic":"Pharmaceutical Economics and Policy","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":7,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Kellogg's (Canada)","funders":"","keywords":"Productivity; Demographics; Life expectancy; Investment (military); Welfare; Demographic economics; Business; Capital (architecture); Economics; Monetary economics; Labour economics; Public economics; Economic growth; Market economy; Demography; Geography; Environmental health; Medicine; Political science","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0002552801,0.000135643,0.0002532322,0.00009170156,0.0002274579,0.0001847106,0.00005737067,0.00007397841,0.00005145081],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00003321016,0.0001559617,0.00002839851,0.0001331959,0.0000644352,0.0001126537,0.0001399851,0.0001256936,0.00001843548],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00001994887,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00001472388,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.000008915728,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00003269287,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9990667,0.000001948911,0.0002790099,0.0003762971,0.00002033137,0.0002557511],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9996522,0.00002112603,0.00007827639,0.00004032407,0.00002239408,0.0001856573],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00003370377,0.00004268154,0.283084,0.0002358624,0.0001233404,0.000003340497,0.01331806,1.657957e-7,0.001078757,0.6840501,0.003693154,0.01433683],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0004047467,0.00001300212,0.07880749,0.00001224906,0.000007631931,0.00001572294,0.0002455746,0.00003494045,0.0002866273,0.009127104,0.9107499,0.0002950216],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9727174,0.001419626,0.000003782271,0.008584161,0.00006028621,0.00008826504,0.00002609158,0.000016737,0.01708366],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9904544,0.001442007,0.001835474,0.005468173,0.00009215956,0.00001305099,0.000006035674,0.00001747637,0.0006711998],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.9070567,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.6359934,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.04364640659366401,"score_gpt":0.2568226408021186,"score_spread":0.2131762342084546,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}