{"id":"W3123463615","doi":"10.1257/pandp.20211104","title":"Private and Social Returns to R&D: Drug Development and Demographics","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"AEA Papers and Proceedings","topic":"Pharmaceutical Economics and Policy","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":7,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Kellogg's (Canada)","funders":"","keywords":"Productivity; Demographics; Life expectancy; Investment (military); Welfare; Demographic economics; Business; Capital (architecture); Economics; Monetary economics; Labour economics; Public economics; Economic growth; Market economy; Demography; Geography; Environmental health; Medicine; Political science","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001375256,0.0001090415,0.000240667,0.002268977,0.0003593271,0.002193057,0.0003021899,0.0005641102,0.01122877],"category_scores_gemma":[0.006436236,0.0001224146,0.0002734118,0.002916231,0.0005543216,0.001991947,0.0008425977,0.0008684864,0.003005296],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001329635,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0006400687,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.006166908,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.006850766,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9992687,0.0001592169,0.00007265868,0.0001003458,0.0002395512,0.000159547],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9904096,0.001667649,0.004779119,0.0001746877,0.001014247,0.00195466],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000279801,0.0001953564,0.9161764,0.0001344317,0.0001351948,0.0001363285,0.0003589449,0.001130663,0.000349962,0.009068606,0.01101529,0.06101901],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000008046874,0.00007288741,0.9818277,0.0000400495,0.00001649355,0.000302167,0.0003547811,0.0005645309,0.0001379653,0.001865988,0.01479373,0.0000157791],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8891206,0.01964671,0.001070229,0.01341455,0.00006374918,0.00007803998,0.0134079,0.00004655991,0.06315168],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9840382,0.006799275,0.0001627178,0.0005028482,0.0001446927,0.00002207687,0.002399159,0.00001223127,0.005918855],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01122877,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.03756398,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.04364640659366401,"score_gpt":0.2568226408021186,"score_spread":0.2131762342084546,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}