{"id":"W3123482017","doi":"","title":"The Return to Independent Invention: Evidence of Unrealistic Optimism, Risk Seeking or Skewness Loving?","year":2003,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Private Equity and Venture Capital","field":"Business, Management and Accounting","cited_by":8,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Waterloo","funders":"","keywords":"Rate of return; Expected return; Skewness; Economics; Portfolio; Rate of return on a portfolio; Internal rate of return; Venture capital; Investment performance; Skew; Investment (military); Risk–return spectrum; Financial economics; Distribution (mathematics); Ex-ante; Market portfolio; Econometrics; Modern portfolio theory; Return on investment; Finance; Production (economics); Microeconomics; Mathematics; Engineering","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.003786596,0.0002236035,0.0004272975,0.001652504,0.0003052762,0.001598196,0.0004713893,0.0009021019,0.004346408],"category_scores_gemma":[0.03699184,0.0002113809,0.0005298864,0.001277297,0.001396124,0.0009148913,0.001279198,0.001166216,0.0007118047],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0002907903,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0002370306,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0004864116,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0004739594,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9989167,0.0003582491,0.0001420443,0.0001574387,0.0002467026,0.0001787992],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9116783,0.0413599,0.03759582,0.004964826,0.001002246,0.003398914],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0003516361,0.0001569317,0.9904346,0.00001611118,0.00008140009,0.0001833641,0.0003196619,0.0002210575,0.0001717801,0.0003680093,0.0002164143,0.00747898],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00002841185,0.000234564,0.9963695,0.00000944679,0.00004173422,0.0006090471,0.0003820993,0.0007236194,0.0001373928,0.001147336,0.0003067693,0.0000100453],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9988168,0.0001814406,0.0000752954,0.0001226237,0.000001828978,0.000003970002,0.00007834241,0.000001812949,0.0007179566],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9995508,0.00008310941,0.00004443243,0.00003151552,0.00001131375,0.000003408753,0.0001074683,0.000001080517,0.0001667753],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.004346408,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.02002567,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02411900432811783,"score_gpt":0.2617990076070425,"score_spread":0.2376800032789247,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}