{"id":"W3123482017","doi":"","title":"The Return to Independent Invention: Evidence of Unrealistic Optimism, Risk Seeking or Skewness Loving?","year":2003,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Private Equity and Venture Capital","field":"Business, Management and Accounting","cited_by":8,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Waterloo","funders":"","keywords":"Rate of return; Expected return; Skewness; Economics; Portfolio; Rate of return on a portfolio; Internal rate of return; Venture capital; Investment performance; Skew; Investment (military); Risk–return spectrum; Financial economics; Distribution (mathematics); Ex-ante; Market portfolio; Econometrics; Modern portfolio theory; Return on investment; Finance; Production (economics); Microeconomics; Mathematics; Engineering","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.004867496,0.00019287,0.0002154399,0.0001632819,0.0006728638,0.0003757542,0.0006462285,0.00008129681,0.00006901442],"category_scores_gemma":[0.001954566,0.0001280047,0.0001543926,0.0005337996,0.00006312553,0.0007938116,0.0001620444,0.001313701,0.00004902139],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0003826305,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0006737588,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0001727002,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001946606,"domain_scores_codex":[0.99726,0.00008812829,0.0004719982,0.0002300565,0.000515835,0.001434028],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9986801,0.0001733024,0.0005733606,0.000290286,0.0002493632,0.00003362888],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0005415154,0.000127006,0.01219003,0.0001274035,0.0002774702,0.00002704549,0.0001796462,0.0005311826,0.0006259414,0.9720228,0.0007400502,0.01260991],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.001329005,0.0003326446,0.003082994,0.0007301611,0.0003728118,0.0003904312,0.004328318,0.001151898,0.0002046843,0.9541234,0.03332593,0.0006276619],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.82209,0.01401606,0.1481238,0.004978514,0.003380471,0.0009697519,0.000003404659,0.0001416167,0.006296404],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9961873,0.001917472,0.00006228971,0.0003009842,0.0007358189,0.000006685494,0.000001289871,0.00002484495,0.0007633413],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.1740973,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.5707451,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02411900432811783,"score_gpt":0.2617990076070425,"score_spread":0.2376800032789247,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}