{"id":"W3124203044","doi":"10.3386/w10270","title":"The Declining Equity Premium: What Role Does Macroeconomic Risk Play?","year":2004,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"National Bureau of Economic Research","topic":"Financial Markets and Investment Strategies","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":87,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Center for Interuniversity Research and Analysis on Organizations","funders":"Alfred P. Sloan Foundation; National Science Foundation","keywords":"Equity (law); Risk premium; Equity premium puzzle; Economics; Monetary economics; Financial economics; Political science","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow","scholarly_communication"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.009169617,0.0003829718,0.0008345555,0.0006211468,0.0007089139,0.001302629,0.001731334,0.0005560732,0.000551766],"category_scores_gemma":[0.001018437,0.0003328309,0.0004120423,0.0001289459,0.0007974854,0.0008429614,0.001781659,0.001623081,0.0007049805],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.002217922,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001414389,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.003961729,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0008849282,"domain_scores_codex":[0.99582,0.0001438156,0.001859547,0.001112841,0.0002407882,0.0008230273],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9958338,0.001402406,0.001477009,0.0008339375,0.0003019692,0.0001508439],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00009428942,0.00006896375,0.005106252,0.00008264552,0.0002182389,8.553559e-7,0.000250504,0.006941226,0.000006556475,0.9834159,0.001721031,0.002093547],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0005162256,0.00007921571,0.006620587,0.0001415985,0.000007275531,0.000001264533,0.0003437838,0.002712399,0.0001533584,0.9779229,0.01115361,0.0003478485],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"other","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.2935483,0.02394404,0.00005170431,0.004479795,0.004789792,0.001919899,0.001331999,0.00006814316,0.6698663],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9706836,0.02606874,0.0002998593,0.00007442608,0.0008677185,0.000288285,0.0001775646,0.00006086683,0.001478974],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.6771352,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9999124,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.2419713817033277,"score_gpt":0.447556548060726,"score_spread":0.2055851663573983,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}