{"id":"W3124377983","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2197492","title":"Credit Spreads as Predictors of Real-Time Economic Activity: A Bayesian Model-Averaging Approach","year":2012,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Credit Risk and Financial Regulations","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":7,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Econometrics; Autoregressive model; Bayesian probability; Bond; Nowcasting; Economics; Benchmark (surveying); Bayesian inference; Economic indicator; Credit risk; Quarter (Canadian coin); Bond market; Real economy; Bayesian vector autoregression; Actuarial science; Statistics; Finance; Mathematics; Monetary economics; Macroeconomics","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.01211679,0.001455114,0.004137788,0.002775751,0.0009750159,0.002730211,0.003131119,0.003154973,0.002540765],"category_scores_gemma":[0.03448471,0.001524488,0.002481603,0.002137539,0.001393473,0.00357237,0.001434377,0.002862122,0.0004809177],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0009337959,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001429358,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01924154,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01407716,"domain_scores_codex":[0.997235,0.001481374,0.0001630174,0.0007070321,0.0002266269,0.0001870707],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9741854,0.02186508,0.001500014,0.001238743,0.0008063615,0.0004045452],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0003120142,0.0002815407,0.02110225,0.00007129585,0.001078316,0.000181935,0.0002028362,0.8973628,0.0005658697,0.0323293,0.001359487,0.04515243],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00002631417,0.00004413701,0.00304297,0.00001240005,0.0001321742,0.00003608963,0.0000121808,0.9721063,0.0000800404,0.02432853,0.0001498997,0.0000288782],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.3324009,0.001863723,0.6611744,0.001693671,0.0001171306,0.00009233069,0.0005901693,0.0003910525,0.001676721],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.956116,0.001348061,0.0384315,0.000174574,0.0003418136,0.0001230577,0.0007768924,0.00005796017,0.002630195],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.01924154,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.06408048,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.0123531520567583,"score_gpt":0.2166736823047162,"score_spread":0.2043205302479579,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}