{"id":"W3124476680","doi":"10.1093/rfs/hhab024","title":"Missing Novelty in Drug Development","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Review of Financial Studies","topic":"Pharmaceutical Economics and Policy","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Kellogg's (Canada)","funders":"","keywords":"Novelty; Shock (circulatory); Drug; Business; Drug development; Value (mathematics); Economics; Microeconomics; Pharmacology; Computer science; Medicine; Psychology; Machine learning","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0006327573,0.0001089971,0.0007331406,0.00005937157,0.00005062688,0.000007133799,0.0001015546,0.00002689165,0.0001092285],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0008138015,0.0001211172,0.0001005369,0.0002547302,0.00004408945,0.00006151604,0.0001081238,0.00009297014,0.0001234584],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001199768,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000115721,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00002573618,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00007752504,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9986597,0.00001334796,0.0008779869,0.0002260921,0.00002095973,0.0002019461],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9994743,0.00005882566,0.0002373142,0.0001385232,0.00005053269,0.0000405265],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00001354603,0.0004823039,0.03260315,0.0251057,0.000204823,0.00004975856,0.002634055,0.000007444664,0.00004567975,0.6454239,0.03450277,0.2589268],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0002476033,0.000004588561,0.02218213,0.002683189,0.000005049361,0.000001918217,0.0000137715,0.000009031501,0.0005992288,0.01029328,0.9637784,0.0001817721],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"review","genre_gemma":"review","genre_scores_codex":[0.04194927,0.9309681,0.00004007345,0.005270866,0.0003054831,0.0001434813,0.00003356378,0.000007110197,0.02128202],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.1339585,0.8515546,0.002882622,0.01087674,0.0001479324,0.00004146712,0.000009205763,0.00001798245,0.0005109243],"genre_candidate":"review","genre_consensus":"review","teacher_disagreement_score":0.9292757,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.4939016,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.132486014715702,"score_gpt":0.3539168111780299,"score_spread":0.2214307964623279,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}