{"id":"W3124642842","doi":"10.17016/ifdp.2016.1179","title":"Learning in the Oil Futures Markets: Evidence and Macroeconomic Implications","year":2016,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"International Finance Discussion Paper","topic":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":14,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Université Laval","funders":"","keywords":"Futures contract; Oil price; Economics; Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium; Monetary economics; Oil-storage trade; Financial economics; Econometrics; Monetary policy","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002337587,0.0003920274,0.0004248627,0.0006793481,0.0004475839,0.00149641,0.0007526237,0.001290379,0.003090146],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0156945,0.0002186415,0.0004180233,0.001029996,0.001539109,0.002857545,0.0009827333,0.001745943,0.000514593],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0006885497,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0004410019,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.009651342,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.005587031,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9996444,0.00008233175,0.00003222679,0.00008105013,0.0000946704,0.00006546206],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9868824,0.007757653,0.003483491,0.0008891906,0.0007245133,0.0002628235],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001664595,0.001078193,0.5493105,0.0005550262,0.0005375675,0.001581156,0.0009161598,0.1423189,0.002960468,0.06438893,0.007120594,0.2275679],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0003728869,0.0007162758,0.3650936,0.000311879,0.0005237498,0.0007582245,0.00170596,0.3274065,0.01193993,0.2704199,0.02050056,0.000250519],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9728304,0.003224433,0.007182654,0.006952481,0.00004136662,0.00001842276,0.0005003207,0.00006904,0.009180876],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.995733,0.002450437,0.0006180712,0.0001870296,0.00008978177,0.000003595548,0.0002641568,0.000007077478,0.0006469943],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.009651342,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.01919031,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01863824346623203,"score_gpt":0.2522137564111125,"score_spread":0.2335755129448805,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}