{"id":"W3124651812","doi":"10.17016/feds.2016.044","title":"Nowcasting Turkish GDP and News Decomposition","year":2016,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Finance and Economics Discussion Series","topic":"Stock Market Forecasting Methods","field":"Decision Sciences","cited_by":5,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Nowcasting; Gross domestic product; Real gross domestic product; Turkish; Economics; Turkish economy; Quarter (Canadian coin); Econometrics; Econometric model; GDP deflator; Monetary economics; Macroeconomics; Geography","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0009240056,0.0006229577,0.0003684849,0.002313662,0.0001846451,0.00156223,0.000364799,0.0007227166,0.003401133],"category_scores_gemma":[0.007018951,0.0002300656,0.0005540438,0.001503668,0.0002531028,0.001275009,0.0004526596,0.0008596153,0.001216614],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0008237091,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0004897714,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.02213774,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01289094,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9995316,0.0001227776,0.00004531829,0.0001533104,0.0000785991,0.00006841069],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9978335,0.00109527,0.00033574,0.0002358807,0.0004219153,0.00007760557],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001451358,0.0002086414,0.1966417,0.0006232578,0.000379721,0.0009689254,0.0006541573,0.3291232,0.00510179,0.03194809,0.05672029,0.3761789],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0000404038,0.00006941841,0.1105122,0.0001157717,0.0001603268,0.0002373416,0.0003473316,0.8546132,0.002622253,0.008041128,0.0231407,0.00009991686],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8502985,0.002761152,0.08442826,0.003763233,0.001243231,0.00009008072,0.04176184,0.001877427,0.01377616],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9617571,0.0009474853,0.009605246,0.00006295175,0.0002996777,0.00003297456,0.02447987,0.00008936154,0.00272537],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.02213774,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.04401773,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.05971806482376499,"score_gpt":0.3473345100607447,"score_spread":0.2876164452369797,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}