{"id":"W3125108001","doi":"10.5334/sta.cr","title":"Machine Learning and Conflict Prediction: A Use Case","year":2013,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Stability International Journal of Security and Development","topic":"Political Conflict and Governance","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":47,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Machine learning; Warning system; Computer science; Artificial intelligence; Field (mathematics); Predictive power; Selection (genetic algorithm); Test (biology); Early warning system; Risk analysis (engineering)","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":true,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.007695647,0.0007748625,0.0007159813,0.002230838,0.00170617,0.003132978,0.001611337,0.002952428,0.002306265],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01759489,0.0003014935,0.0008579555,0.004858127,0.00168489,0.002512459,0.002314596,0.002374463,0.0004039462],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001579235,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0008186197,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01451993,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01441711,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9935436,0.004861816,0.0002262281,0.0002210537,0.0009264849,0.0002208986],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9740748,0.02290609,0.0005407637,0.0009544172,0.00128936,0.0002345136],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0013189,0.003021746,0.1780314,0.001171248,0.0004850358,0.005574566,0.003642806,0.1833542,0.001294836,0.1716992,0.03573119,0.4146748],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0003732117,0.001141478,0.02861873,0.000558296,0.0002133112,0.001403671,0.00354991,0.802858,0.003543671,0.1047439,0.05285427,0.0001416449],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.759819,0.01933732,0.1141434,0.03836019,0.0005920493,0.0005501441,0.001606058,0.0005835361,0.0650083],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9246253,0.008222936,0.05813763,0.001122765,0.0003794745,0.0003065287,0.0006301936,0.0000773713,0.006497667],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01451993,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.04069895,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03882805782316824,"score_gpt":0.3056701606244451,"score_spread":0.2668421028012768,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}