{"id":"W3125559378","doi":"","title":"Default Risk in Corporate Yield Spreads","year":2005,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","topic":"Credit Risk and Financial Regulations","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":8,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Héma-Québec; Business Development Bank of Canada; HEC Montréal","funders":"","keywords":"Default risk; Yield (engineering); Credit risk; Credit rating; Credit spread (options); Economics; Econometrics; Loss given default; Fraction (chemistry); Default; Financial economics; Probability of default; Actuarial science; Finance; Microeconomics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow","research_integrity"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.003278041,0.0004398084,0.001121262,0.001753734,0.0001824885,0.0002164454,0.0009436871,0.0009589131,0.0003804113],"category_scores_gemma":[0.001552968,0.0005946508,0.0003175957,0.0004358365,0.0003183616,0.0002079299,0.0009475464,0.003023201,0.0002948961],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001620246,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0003909377,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.002565849,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00992813,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9953847,0.00009871874,0.001810724,0.001488647,0.0001020159,0.001115215],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9966748,0.0005267295,0.001041562,0.001450695,0.0000769383,0.0002293105],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001044008,0.0003742468,0.7642636,0.00007947657,0.00006427366,0.0000436737,0.0006872201,0.0611081,0.000005750398,0.02358687,0.0003260515,0.1493563],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0009639423,0.0000851832,0.7905849,0.0002179872,0.000006266124,0.000005089576,0.0001781625,0.03915057,0.00002315363,0.08427411,0.08353749,0.000973214],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8320057,0.001179906,0.00005587956,0.0004211005,0.0009327127,0.0008618167,0.0008713828,0.00004756712,0.1636239],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9629543,0.03089666,0.0008905976,0.00002851734,0.0007225126,0.0003149614,0.000138654,0.0001010144,0.003952729],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.1596712,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9996505,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.07809161201231246,"score_gpt":0.293899916475196,"score_spread":0.2158083044628836,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}