{"id":"W3125564831","doi":"10.24149/gwp359r1","title":"Ties that Bind: Estimating the Natural Rate of Interest for Small Open Economies","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":2,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Economics; New Keynesian economics; Small open economy; Monetary policy; Natural (archaeology); Interest rate; Open economy; Economy; Monetary economics; Econometrics; Macroeconomics; Keynesian economics; Exchange rate; Geography","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001925693,0.000280741,0.0005087575,0.0009601017,0.000492195,0.001379809,0.000536632,0.0005321608,0.0008973864],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0162402,0.0003648804,0.0005104479,0.0007921899,0.0006873725,0.002560339,0.001331555,0.001086375,0.0001698787],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0005502994,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0007021189,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01287146,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.008349463,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9994824,0.000197882,0.00003076114,0.0001374803,0.00008889511,0.00006258418],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9939832,0.003208704,0.001688353,0.0004283575,0.0003593552,0.0003319786],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0005982867,0.0002456266,0.3582105,0.0001508377,0.0004154555,0.0009996033,0.001747436,0.4458167,0.002574625,0.09697071,0.001629417,0.09064063],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00007348094,0.0001498797,0.08917357,0.00005322559,0.0001084215,0.0002209597,0.001121654,0.806575,0.002034779,0.09598333,0.004437469,0.00006821603],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9384915,0.0004535645,0.05818872,0.0002101565,0.00001593566,0.00001845106,0.0001510021,0.00003821406,0.002432398],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9936435,0.0001494212,0.005457953,0.00001707299,0.00001154512,0.000007825305,0.0002588638,0.000009451848,0.0004444303],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01287146,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.0255931,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.3447030817222705,"score_gpt":0.295049013989248,"score_spread":0.0496540677330225,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}