{"id":"W3125646609","doi":"","title":"Can the Fed Predict the State of the Economy","year":2009,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Inflation (cosmology); Economics; Quarter (Canadian coin); Unemployment; Unemployment rate; Econometrics; State (computer science); Real gross domestic product; Macroeconomics; Economy; Keynesian economics; Mathematics; Geography","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.004235083,0.0006910599,0.001167309,0.001011617,0.0003164586,0.003313942,0.0005244109,0.002488006,0.001967224],"category_scores_gemma":[0.04602812,0.0004049589,0.0003263468,0.0009795892,0.0008692113,0.004952725,0.0009393606,0.001519305,0.001365655],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0008171316,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0008852627,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.005634231,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00216013,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9991984,0.0003603306,0.00004154067,0.0001865077,0.0001230342,0.00009013136],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9877881,0.007437136,0.002331321,0.001072198,0.001129663,0.0002416908],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.003118719,0.0002955025,0.2436541,0.0004414563,0.0008957894,0.0003739908,0.0004521689,0.3069796,0.001997869,0.144055,0.03618559,0.2615503],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000173847,0.0001135634,0.04725484,0.0002359371,0.0001623446,0.0001205197,0.0002825356,0.5993761,0.002140751,0.3391131,0.01090497,0.0001214374],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.7771044,0.007357626,0.1210303,0.04980196,0.001505199,0.00005020645,0.002893572,0.0009334181,0.03932333],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9887344,0.002189359,0.004382869,0.0009999402,0.0006660587,0.0000177345,0.0009343465,0.0000393468,0.002036029],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.005634231,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.02239758,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.06670047737437158,"score_gpt":0.2772262352383185,"score_spread":0.2105257578639469,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}