{"id":"W3125784456","doi":"","title":"Anticipating Critical Transitions of Chinese Housing Markets","year":2017,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series","topic":"Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Quantile; Beijing; Real estate; Econometrics; Robustness (evolution); China; Confidence interval; Calibration; Warning system; Economics; Quantile regression; Computer science; Statistics; Geography; Mathematics; Finance","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["sts"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001291604,0.0001875918,0.0006403414,0.000287068,0.00179136,0.0003500803,0.0006324998,0.0001041107,0.0003748802],"category_scores_gemma":[0.001404764,0.0001950278,0.0002092742,0.0003719362,0.001330485,0.002068457,0.0002397998,0.0003215934,0.00009547358],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00005326749,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00007807856,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.003106373,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.002545859,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9979616,0.00004693876,0.0007451609,0.0004882166,0.0001609123,0.000597186],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9981837,0.00009247589,0.0002709338,0.00110148,0.0002591098,0.00009233478],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00009872663,0.0001637724,0.06654556,0.0003781332,0.0001077912,0.00007113227,0.001069682,0.00009467639,0.0008127959,0.9269751,0.0002589927,0.00342358],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0007640139,0.0002337445,0.6739447,0.0004402126,0.00001518607,0.00002667321,0.0003982788,0.002427739,0.0002689685,0.1600985,0.1606944,0.0006876975],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9108332,0.002978894,0.001703627,0.006802732,0.0006816004,0.0003179007,0.0002406829,0.00004456297,0.07639683],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9964316,0.0005752004,0.001725874,0.0000184242,0.0001956974,0.00004771661,0.000008882934,0.00002547444,0.0009711054],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.7668767,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9995081,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1090366999753384,"score_gpt":0.3659038798901305,"score_spread":0.2568671799147921,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}