{"id":"W3125793651","doi":"10.17578/12-1/2-1","title":"Are Forward Exchange Rates Rational Forecasts of Future Spot Rates? An Improved Econometric Analysis for the Major Currencies","year":2008,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Multinational Finance Journal","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":7,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Economics; Spot contract; Forward rate; Liberian dollar; Normality; Pound (networking); Us dollar; Econometrics; Rationality; Exchange rate; Financial economics; German; Rational expectations; Futures contract; Forward contract; Interest rate; Monetary economics; Statistics; Finance; Mathematics; Computer science","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001099609,0.0002416706,0.0006210918,0.0009342543,0.0007052826,0.00009193495,0.0004341987,0.0001198527,0.0008833796],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0003716303,0.0002133748,0.0005157756,0.0007407315,0.0001259011,0.000879581,0.00003725283,0.0002460703,0.00003763102],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001498698,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00006370161,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00008089566,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.000136014,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9980593,0.00002748187,0.001074867,0.0003572105,0.00007735439,0.0004037318],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9970807,0.0003428593,0.002019326,0.0002670337,0.0001877316,0.0001023649],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0004842144,0.000679142,0.8608146,0.0001093239,0.002263272,0.000008268753,0.002252419,0.09542439,0.00003188134,0.01921454,0.01008212,0.008635775],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0011621,0.0001101776,0.6740972,0.00000604201,0.00005602511,0.00004296036,0.0001178313,0.3070303,0.00008979456,0.002729263,0.01432206,0.00023622],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9704136,0.005846191,0.01840387,0.001968651,0.0007854161,0.0004242344,0.001970812,0.00001121827,0.0001760338],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.992084,0.001031812,0.004061582,0.0002952089,0.001248582,0.00007191041,0.0001417593,0.00002247124,0.00104265],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.211606,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9672387,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.106489385714622,"score_gpt":0.2771276222967102,"score_spread":0.1706382365820882,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}