{"id":"W3125901264","doi":"","title":"Oil price drivers, geopolitical uncertainty and oil exporters’ currencies","year":2019,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","topic":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Geopolitics; Economics; Oil price; Monetary economics; Exchange rate; Crude oil; International economics; Petroleum engineering","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0006085496,0.000166687,0.0003132495,0.000662412,0.0002311189,0.002354457,0.0001777009,0.0003306441,0.002797022],"category_scores_gemma":[0.004493766,0.0001560328,0.0002848841,0.001381588,0.0004398132,0.0009452024,0.0004613982,0.0004516827,0.0001628825],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0007299199,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0004979703,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.03483408,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.02113665,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9998815,0.000019958,0.00001049431,0.00002705573,0.00003174713,0.00002925963],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9981261,0.0008410191,0.0007722495,0.0000773158,0.000106201,0.00007710228],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0002908163,0.00008112683,0.9219866,0.00008434062,0.0002675505,0.0006065221,0.0009237652,0.02724892,0.002000613,0.02742871,0.001152924,0.01792791],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00002208188,0.00004248887,0.9468927,0.00003514238,0.0001550707,0.0001713355,0.001836904,0.02988258,0.001247321,0.01535334,0.004320303,0.00004064417],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9947864,0.0004086881,0.0007238445,0.000216792,0.000006730723,0.000003888254,0.0003313574,0.000006290918,0.003516023],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9985723,0.0003825767,0.000138525,0.000008395323,0.000008633054,0.000001706946,0.0002470922,0.000003407876,0.0006373278],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.03483408,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.06926268,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03901688669645489,"score_gpt":0.2846287902212437,"score_spread":0.2456119035247888,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}