{"id":"W3126117335","doi":"10.1287/mnsc.2014.1920","title":"Management Earnings Forecasts and Value of Analyst Forecast Revisions","year":2014,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Management Science","topic":"Auditing, Earnings Management, Governance","field":"Business, Management and Accounting","cited_by":68,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Earnings; Stock (firearms); Economics; Consensus forecast; Stock price; Private information retrieval; Quarter (Canadian coin); Econometrics; Financial economics; Actuarial science; Business; Finance; Computer science","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002101311,0.0001745655,0.0002098101,0.0006355564,0.000160815,0.001186625,0.0001814453,0.0004823347,0.001373164],"category_scores_gemma":[0.05418077,0.0001494898,0.0001414417,0.0005634704,0.0002101879,0.001054422,0.0003760875,0.0006875831,0.0002476757],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0003968836,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0002765663,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001775137,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.002156181,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9989502,0.0002768663,0.0001165608,0.0001407042,0.0004161062,0.00009967109],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.92602,0.03126117,0.03633084,0.00178619,0.003632296,0.0009695202],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0007451773,0.0001595231,0.9301213,0.00005267402,0.0001783488,0.0001845075,0.001349966,0.004298985,0.005367381,0.001857644,0.001189676,0.05449486],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00001601023,0.0001713855,0.9869796,0.00001977105,0.00005630648,0.00009443221,0.0004130422,0.007913664,0.001574656,0.001703104,0.001024891,0.00003306692],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9960068,0.0002385532,0.000652985,0.0002988731,0.00002804082,0.00000643379,0.00009816427,0.00002147114,0.00264886],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9994481,0.00006601608,0.0000982715,0.00001738321,0.0000347332,0.000001626096,0.00004924621,0.00000251878,0.0002820168],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.002101311,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.01111299,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.008212072508281721,"score_gpt":0.2167607201570205,"score_spread":0.2085486476487388,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}