{"id":"W3126117335","doi":"10.1287/mnsc.2014.1920","title":"Management Earnings Forecasts and Value of Analyst Forecast Revisions","year":2014,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Management Science","topic":"Auditing, Earnings Management, Governance","field":"Business, Management and Accounting","cited_by":68,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Earnings; Stock (firearms); Economics; Consensus forecast; Stock price; Private information retrieval; Quarter (Canadian coin); Econometrics; Financial economics; Actuarial science; Business; Finance; Computer science","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002737498,0.0003657674,0.0004031537,0.001143415,0.0006890768,0.0005161217,0.001295999,0.00004280201,0.0001786907],"category_scores_gemma":[0.001193586,0.0003518022,0.0001133808,0.002882598,0.0007008766,0.001767017,0.002465233,0.0001737831,0.0002230985],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00007319646,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000007058984,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0001261463,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00001202564,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9961537,0.00002292037,0.0006048926,0.001075028,0.001349932,0.0007935956],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9930507,0.00004713342,0.005852274,0.000832109,0.0001624256,0.00005537144],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00001962299,0.00008145354,0.03149802,0.0009349841,0.00007406158,0.00002206418,0.00006996073,0.001283237,0.0001240282,0.4907802,0.002020579,0.4730918],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.001255817,0.00005885202,0.4517548,0.000658042,0.0003803101,0.000003565328,0.0005099464,0.05418906,0.00008587961,0.007833246,0.4824422,0.0008282754],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"other","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.3315108,0.00005678944,0.2541751,0.0009015953,0.0004339598,0.001006536,0.000002024831,0.0002442627,0.4116689],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9897582,0.00007303615,0.005533247,0.001028368,0.0002123226,0.00004543576,0.000007065393,0.0000401287,0.003302193],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.6582474,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9998934,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.008212072508281721,"score_gpt":0.2167607201570205,"score_spread":0.2085486476487388,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}