{"id":"W3126122178","doi":"10.21034/sr.410","title":"Default and the Maturity Structure in Sovereign Bonds","year":2013,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"","topic":"Global Financial Crisis and Policies","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":67,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Western University","funders":"","keywords":"Maturity (psychological); Bond; Monetary economics; Yield curve; Interest rate; Sovereign default; Debt; Economics; Incentive; Debt levels and flows; Government debt; Financial economics; Internal debt; Sovereign debt; Sovereignty; Finance; Microeconomics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001527331,0.0002395294,0.0003888191,0.000796174,0.0003463434,0.001616038,0.0004248569,0.0007009773,0.001117909],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0150366,0.0002805334,0.0002622878,0.001084393,0.000579707,0.002488422,0.0006215418,0.001330768,0.000192793],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.000694839,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0002837708,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.002463217,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001459965,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9997538,0.00009131675,0.00002297541,0.0000508745,0.00003852872,0.00004248094],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9943765,0.002368948,0.002351822,0.0002479977,0.0003173742,0.0003374371],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001045361,0.0002501496,0.4011447,0.000245052,0.0002540118,0.00135947,0.002263802,0.1425292,0.01724524,0.3560227,0.002316909,0.07532346],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001095227,0.0001916788,0.2211506,0.0001409516,0.0001047983,0.0008194458,0.0007417005,0.3920241,0.00283061,0.3788611,0.002939051,0.00008637077],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9805781,0.002487573,0.01357885,0.0004976184,0.00001122451,0.000006190655,0.0001702765,0.0000264838,0.002643743],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9985783,0.0005447185,0.0004524837,0.00001057881,0.00001619801,0.000002158908,0.00006673988,0.00000542423,0.0003232528],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.002463217,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.008077383,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01666350118046202,"score_gpt":0.215533455948176,"score_spread":0.198869954767714,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}