{"id":"W3127974399","doi":"10.1101/2021.02.02.21251039","title":"Could the new COVID-19 mutant strain undermine vaccination efforts? A mathematical modelling approach for estimating the spread of the UK mutant strain using Ontario, Canada, as a case study","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"medRxiv","topic":"SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research","field":"Medicine","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"York University; Mount Allison University","funders":"","keywords":"Outbreak; Context (archaeology); Pandemic; Infectious disease (medical specialty); Vaccination; Population; Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); Virology; Strain (injury); Biology; Mutant; Disease; Genetics; Medicine; Environmental health; Gene","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001060197,0.0006935882,0.0004426065,0.001115521,0.000675754,0.001064528,0.001676077,0.001342774,0.001887381],"category_scores_gemma":[0.003913532,0.0003989194,0.0008074409,0.0008404304,0.0007234197,0.0005638452,0.0006387256,0.0007318865,0.0001307308],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.009809752,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.006002819,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":true,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.8452001,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.7439406,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9996928,0.00009342139,0.0000135429,0.00006142597,0.00003846432,0.0001002637],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9984535,0.0008766419,0.0002389053,0.00004522522,0.0002924827,0.00009328565],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00006370559,0.00003724791,0.03118903,0.00004594041,0.00005079861,0.0003844963,0.0001467871,0.9592674,0.0005625053,0.00420409,0.00078001,0.003268067],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000009258715,0.00002114962,0.004730141,0.000009336611,0.0000227954,0.00002997653,0.0001964842,0.9938797,0.0001055155,0.0005272523,0.000456247,0.00001207861],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9446474,0.0004739001,0.0454758,0.001101026,0.00002750966,0.0001568278,0.001835958,0.00007589057,0.006205786],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9880608,0.0001880913,0.008305353,0.00005081019,0.000006753205,0.00005538143,0.0005421403,0.000008699782,0.002782027],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.1547999,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.311423,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1264507995590638,"score_gpt":0.3797800783814104,"score_spread":0.2533292788223466,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}