{"id":"W3129242329","doi":"10.3386/w24353","title":"Protectionism and the Business Cycle","year":2018,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"National Bureau of Economic Research","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":45,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Bank of Canada; HEC Montréal; Université du Québec à Montréal","funders":"","keywords":"Protectionism; Business cycle; Business; International trade; Economics; Keynesian economics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.006539159,0.0002124234,0.0006521496,0.0006427962,0.0003075737,0.000217615,0.0006307479,0.00034046,0.000861135],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0007697779,0.0001996156,0.0001575044,0.0001263784,0.001218726,0.0001991841,0.0006870655,0.0007495501,0.0009245774],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0004375678,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0002161868,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.008081093,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00009449693,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9977577,0.0001114311,0.00096421,0.000664848,0.0001032796,0.0003985743],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9981331,0.0005031594,0.0005719482,0.0005169467,0.0001844339,0.00009040633],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001734571,0.00003828061,0.001174591,0.0001284136,0.0002200936,3.238213e-7,0.0003218032,0.006247963,0.000001612458,0.9835882,0.007871874,0.0002334505],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.001010469,0.00002901421,0.00486409,0.00003114083,0.000004111643,0.000007155598,0.00001826528,0.03825809,0.00002407709,0.9510265,0.00454267,0.0001844053],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"other","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.3854982,0.003956143,0.0002676546,0.01969709,0.001768385,0.002641172,0.0008255146,0.0000450898,0.5853007],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9955683,0.0007114639,0.0002756269,0.000109104,0.001133302,0.0002231294,0.00007514399,0.00003217309,0.001871769],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.6100701,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9998533,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.4124835470815412,"score_gpt":0.4362375092199335,"score_spread":0.02375396213839237,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}