{"id":"W3129814952","doi":"","title":"Identification of fiscal SVARs in small open economies using trading partner forecast errors as instruments","year":2020,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Economics; Open economy; Small open economy; Endogeneity; Identification (biology); Fiscal multiplier; Macroeconomics; Vector autoregression; Econometrics; Monetary economics; Monetary policy; Government spending","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.00302802,0.0005677522,0.0008405032,0.00133449,0.0003401529,0.002376921,0.000675629,0.000529205,0.001729056],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01207361,0.0004726633,0.0008459811,0.00148617,0.0008110416,0.001557529,0.001610677,0.001297221,0.000225197],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.000729357,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001343107,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01291583,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01135687,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9993117,0.000230431,0.00006690696,0.000161065,0.00009451064,0.0001353716],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9931425,0.003632367,0.002285405,0.0003486136,0.0003665829,0.0002245069],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0002608838,0.0001722318,0.2095145,0.0001590698,0.0005802869,0.0005834961,0.0007624906,0.5947394,0.001367077,0.137608,0.00178478,0.05246772],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00005788888,0.0001008069,0.03085517,0.00005797512,0.0001160272,0.00005296581,0.000427734,0.8966058,0.0009697055,0.06913658,0.001577052,0.00004224909],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8757657,0.0003247044,0.1194009,0.0004195208,0.00004190923,0.00003792858,0.0004832586,0.0001662615,0.003360042],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9932187,0.000271013,0.005106156,0.00001795618,0.00002616007,0.00002282985,0.0004350202,0.000017724,0.0008844815],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01291583,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.02568126,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.2511067086794919,"score_gpt":0.3540704194635177,"score_spread":0.1029637107840258,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}