{"id":"W3130961166","doi":"10.1111/risa.13718","title":"Uncertainty Quantification with Experts: Present Status and Research Needs","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Risk Analysis","topic":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","field":"Decision Sciences","cited_by":56,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of British Columbia","funders":"","keywords":"Expert elicitation; Quality (philosophy); Computer science; Management science; Data science; Investment decisions; Knowledge management; Risk analysis (engineering); Business; Engineering","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":["metaresearch"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.1743454,0.001268525,0.002927887,0.004637838,0.003539018,0.01630281,0.007583763,0.0120738,0.01521133],"category_scores_gemma":[0.2171929,0.0009626366,0.001607338,0.006987495,0.01415123,0.03667373,0.007019316,0.01050072,0.00347731],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.006678607,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.01736661,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.005128038,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.005902233,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9164128,0.06225174,0.004401143,0.004719808,0.01003174,0.002182817],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.3887771,0.5526602,0.007871152,0.009474875,0.03653352,0.004683184],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":"methods","domain_candidate":"methods","domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0005901128,0.0006506038,0.00522108,0.01392479,0.0001681707,0.0003456629,0.01232417,0.003089618,0.0007558559,0.2228564,0.02975402,0.7103195],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001273205,0.0005699655,0.004191115,0.04111916,0.0001530157,0.0008326352,0.05292087,0.01014811,0.001417812,0.6940871,0.1941557,0.0002772913],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"review","genre_gemma":"review","genre_scores_codex":[0.01595147,0.492772,0.04409879,0.4154265,0.002662386,0.0002602431,0.0002778195,0.0001190437,0.02843184],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.2753699,0.5740303,0.09898877,0.0336308,0.01094357,0.001428862,0.0007899583,0.0001650882,0.004652714],"genre_candidate":"review","genre_consensus":"review","teacher_disagreement_score":0.8256546,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9220377,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.2098551583168967,"score_gpt":0.4689021154960107,"score_spread":0.259046957179114,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}