{"id":"W3130961166","doi":"10.1111/risa.13718","title":"Uncertainty Quantification with Experts: Present Status and Research Needs","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Risk Analysis","topic":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","field":"Decision Sciences","cited_by":56,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of British Columbia","funders":"","keywords":"Expert elicitation; Quality (philosophy); Computer science; Management science; Data science; Investment decisions; Knowledge management; Risk analysis (engineering); Business; Engineering","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002483004,0.00007690761,0.0002098509,0.0007046838,0.0004034248,0.0003924643,0.0002608088,0.00004566378,0.0002670094],"category_scores_gemma":[0.001220011,0.00005049452,0.00008975293,0.008436352,0.0001792308,0.0001012896,0.0001369018,0.0001361864,0.00002803108],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00003723148,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00008157893,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001946827,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001092485,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9974803,0.0003862372,0.000316286,0.0004600371,0.001113001,0.000244173],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9965801,0.001121482,0.000135252,0.0009667778,0.001067008,0.0001294103],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00007742055,0.0003399606,0.6830248,0.000006600684,0.0007878717,0.00001237376,0.004953802,0.02366376,0.001389858,0.03027808,0.03643006,0.2190354],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0003810356,0.0001439199,0.133611,0.00002228685,0.0008253815,0.000007991102,0.02767837,0.407188,0.005548826,0.06361875,0.3605122,0.0004622719],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9177489,0.0005918647,0.07744122,0.001944436,0.000009738615,0.0001371809,0.00003876408,0.00005747095,0.002030383],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9900907,0.0004994927,0.007139578,0.00001643004,0.00002798876,0.00005412422,0.00003058308,0.000005825118,0.002135246],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.5494139,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.4053388,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.2098551583168967,"score_gpt":0.4689021154960107,"score_spread":0.259046957179114,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}