{"id":"W3135631171","doi":"10.4236/ojs.2021.112014","title":"Predictors of the Aggregate of COVID-19 Cases and Its Case-Fatality: A Global Investigation Involving 120 Countries","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Open Journal of Statistics","topic":"COVID-19 Clinical Research Studies","field":"Medicine","cited_by":2,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Western University","funders":"","keywords":"Case fatality rate; Pandemic; Medicine; Negative binomial distribution; Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); Demography; Population; Regression analysis; Disease; Environmental health; Statistics; Infectious disease (medical specialty); Internal medicine; Mathematics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaresearch"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001294674,0.0001045638,0.0005183598,0.00003954667,0.0001310185,0.00004582862,0.0001886216,0.00004836806,0.00005467144],"category_scores_gemma":[0.1418009,0.00007085864,0.00005787506,0.0002899896,0.0005503822,0.0001480971,0.000484532,0.0002217092,4.04289e-7],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001799249,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0034443,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0004924975,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.000449989,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9979712,0.0002711577,0.0008115846,0.0001315933,0.0006668448,0.0001475583],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9904153,0.006687872,0.0008326992,0.0001985824,0.001519907,0.0003456131],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001120682,0.0002558312,0.9379312,0.006225977,0.001261394,0.01831757,0.003142045,0.0001593215,0.00108871,0.01760003,0.010511,0.002386174],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.03109724,0.009823211,0.7331167,0.01487868,0.007316509,0.03188417,0.02220094,0.004945275,0.03131474,0.06116898,0.05104471,0.001208869],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.981899,0.003637146,0.001402774,0.009431914,0.0002497819,0.0004908222,0.002797776,0.000003767364,0.00008704443],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9927605,0.003373572,0.002714122,0.0009710119,0.00006188235,0.000001889429,0.000007971084,0.000007545214,0.0001014431],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.2048146,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.865428,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1128099696541836,"score_gpt":0.4420111225663732,"score_spread":0.3292011529121897,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}