{"id":"W3141629074","doi":"10.34989/tr-94","title":"A Comparison of Twelve Macroeconomic Models of the Canadian Economy","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","topic":"Canadian Policy and Governance","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":7,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Bank of Canada","funders":"","keywords":"Economics; Disequilibrium; Monetary policy; Inflation (cosmology); Phillips curve; Small open economy; Inflation targeting; Impulse response; Vector autoregression; Interest rate; Yield curve; Econometrics; Taylor rule; Macroeconomic model; Output gap; Keynesian economics; Macroeconomics; Central bank; Mathematics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001628698,0.0001756761,0.0006419522,0.0003162432,0.0003377578,0.0001304348,0.00135643,0.0004589223,0.0001904155],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0003646109,0.0001969617,0.0002782321,0.0001652408,0.001299815,0.0001312042,0.0005091228,0.001135041,0.000002259352],"about_ca_system_candidate":true,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.003578303,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.01522435,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":true,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.8973705,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.9959984,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9973904,0.0004071283,0.0007339812,0.0005063584,0.0001839936,0.0007781704],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9977601,0.0003482109,0.000451049,0.0009185674,0.0001648713,0.0003571921],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001166609,0.000433801,0.1588581,0.001035835,0.000688734,0.0000328418,0.1096232,0.2741359,0.00005044199,0.3114786,0.006856155,0.1366898],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.001480975,0.0001011977,0.05278539,0.001564394,0.00005924718,0.000005291408,0.03024445,0.04003566,0.001616073,0.07456683,0.7957529,0.001787537],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.5538722,0.0002638523,4.120315e-7,0.003703017,0.0003251498,0.0006297809,0.0004397497,0.00000435292,0.4407614],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9954737,0.00133324,0.00006354824,0.0002309725,0.0001416663,0.00005830517,0.00001082234,0.00002395856,0.002663733],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.7888968,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9903584,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.06753725754238037,"score_gpt":0.3723121463809087,"score_spread":0.3047748888385283,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}