{"id":"W3142143979","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3106622","title":"Time Series Models with Asymmetric Innovations","year":2018,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","field":"Decision Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"McMaster University","funders":"","keywords":"Series (stratigraphy); Econometrics; Economics; Business; Law and economics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.003464308,0.0001112044,0.0001477712,0.0004753985,0.0005534607,0.0002137063,0.0006785209,0.00005068015,0.0001088141],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0003254512,0.0000716587,0.00005106278,0.00303848,0.0002270812,0.0005776201,0.0000622868,0.0007023981,0.0003628315],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0002165671,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001179207,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00001447227,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0001762693,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9975617,0.00004848147,0.0003934739,0.000239441,0.0006845978,0.001072327],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9982774,0.0001189686,0.000264033,0.0003704811,0.0009069825,0.00006215854],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0000269369,0.00003364477,0.0001702799,2.136188e-7,0.00002429702,6.118804e-7,0.00007530999,0.00008306948,0.00009571564,0.9466059,0.004758624,0.04812542],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000129894,0.0005852315,0.0000967073,0.000005838377,0.000008268197,0.0006092182,0.0003297461,0.003786706,0.0002124035,0.981742,0.01238196,0.0001119979],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.1043703,0.000185884,0.8461338,0.005016033,0.00006939297,0.0002045711,0.000007124468,0.0001655339,0.04384736],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9729216,0.0000833063,0.01348826,0.0001273722,0.0002741838,0.00001136826,0.000001941089,0.0000170038,0.01307496],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.8685513,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.4663586,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.05040165864593213,"score_gpt":0.3336838365203867,"score_spread":0.2832821778744546,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}